Last weeks high: $30039.5
Last weeks low: $29299.0
Midpoint: $28558.5
Historically, August has not been a very bullish month for bitcoin and crypto as a whole. Other than 2013, 2017 & 2021 (Bull market years) August has had negative ROI.
The pattern shows that since 2013, every 4 years bitcoin has a positive monthly return coinciding with a bull market rally. If we were to apply this pattern to future returns, 2025 should have green August thanks to a bull market.
We already know that the halving is taking place somewhere in Q2 of 2024, the US election in Q4 2024 along with potential BTC ETF's from Blackrock becoming closer and closer to reality. 2025 Could be a very strong year for the crypto market as a whole.
In the short term, the way price has been behaving in recent weeks I would struggle to see why this August will be any different. For many weeks now I have believed that the target of 26.5K is in reach for the bears, approximately -9% from current price and when not including bull market years the average % return for the month is -9.8%. 2018's august returned -9.27%.
Last weeks low: $29299.0
Midpoint: $28558.5
Historically, August has not been a very bullish month for bitcoin and crypto as a whole. Other than 2013, 2017 & 2021 (Bull market years) August has had negative ROI.
The pattern shows that since 2013, every 4 years bitcoin has a positive monthly return coinciding with a bull market rally. If we were to apply this pattern to future returns, 2025 should have green August thanks to a bull market.
We already know that the halving is taking place somewhere in Q2 of 2024, the US election in Q4 2024 along with potential BTC ETF's from Blackrock becoming closer and closer to reality. 2025 Could be a very strong year for the crypto market as a whole.
In the short term, the way price has been behaving in recent weeks I would struggle to see why this August will be any different. For many weeks now I have believed that the target of 26.5K is in reach for the bears, approximately -9% from current price and when not including bull market years the average % return for the month is -9.8%. 2018's august returned -9.27%.
Trade closed: target reached:
We're now at the 26.5K area that was outlined previously. meaning the majority of the FVG has been filled. We have Blackrock and others wanting to buy lower still going into the halving and ETF stage of the cycle.
I'm cautious here as I think there could be further downside. The bulls need to clear that 32.5k range high and as of now we tagged range low. A big weekend/week for Bitcoin is coming up.
I'm cautious here as I think there could be further downside. The bulls need to clear that 32.5k range high and as of now we tagged range low. A big weekend/week for Bitcoin is coming up.
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