CerealTrader

Bitcoin BTC - Sentiment Change or Trap & Alt Coins

Long
CerealTrader Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
It seems a change in sentiment might be initializing as we see a change from sharp jagged rises (circled black) it can be seen as positive or negative depending where your portfolio lies i guess. Time is Bitcoin's friend at the moment as it provides the ability for technical analysis to "catch up" and turn positive. The previous February rise I saw as more sustainable steady growth but at present TA adds alternate layer of support, which should become profit sell resistant as momentum grows along with price and volume, these terms seem to be too closely linked lately which needs to be watched closely as can change on dime. I would say the Tax Drop had priced in already and the rise in Alt coins after the date would be indicative of this.
If we apply Fibonacci Retracement levels on the current price action showing aligned correction areas (dark horizontal lines) TA indicates the uptrend gaining momentum in which would naturally lead to larger volatility hence profit taking and larger losses, its all a matter of risk/time span of trade in this environment as seems pullback is inevitable but TA cant predict whale manipulation.

Looking at supports within supports, the 4HR 50MA will act as support heading upwards but will only need loss of volume or profit taking to drop below and bring the 100EMA into play, this support has been difficult for BTC to stay above and usually needs large volume to onset the price drop. Below this we have the Weekly 50MA which has proved to be quite resilient in its bottom base level support, as it is moving away from the 200MA quite rapidly leading to the path of least resistance upwards and strengthening the chance the uptrend could use the Weekly 50MA as support before commencing.

Bitfinex, seemed to initialise the price jump which isn't the most trusting of exchanges and ill leave it at that.
I would see profit taking at points along downward trend line but this unpredictability means it is difficult to analyse whether these dramatic gains signify an upturn on previous spikes. Volume/price quickly weakened on previous attempts although this time volume is holding. Alt coins, first sign of alternate reversal is speculation, Verge (pornhub announced) Vechain (partnership with the world...they have a lot partnerships), Ripple should be announcing soon, which have been holding off and seem to think markets ready to absorb. Although the reversal wont be successful until it re-enters the green upward trend which investment know, and believe they will be the stepping stone to full reversal.
Alternate

Thought: Seems the Cryptocurrency Market isn't strong enough yet to withstand a Stock Market crash as Gold, Fiat maybe Bonds seem best bet in this scenario, I believe the market needs working product to become a safe commodities in these times and this would probably be Nano as they have pretty much finished what the intended purpose was, a simple digital currency with scalability or by the end of 2018 BTC as lighting network (Sigwit V0.16 needs to be market adopted first) bulletproof, increased awareness will all be released in Q4.


BTC is seeing some tough times , so I should write this:
***Education Purposes only***
Comment:
Here's Ichimoku Cloud "double settings" showing support for the analysed trend, 100EMA converging support.
CerealTrader

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