Continuation of my idea from yesterday where I called the top of the rising channel. A small bounce up from the center of the channel is possible like we did last time, perhaps up to 24k before treading back down.
Still overall bearish and expecting to break the channel maybe within a week or so to the downside.
I think people have not fully appreciated the monetary tightened environment we're in. Nearly everyone, both retail and institutions and corporations were credit addicts for the past decade and more. Everyone was already overleveraged. People have not saved up money for higher interests or inflation events like this one. At least for now, money will not be flowing into crypto or equities.
Nor have I really heard much talk about the absolutely unprecedented disaster coming for world food prices and security. 12% of the world's calories come from Ukraine and Russia's grain and oil seed exports. 25% of fertilizer as well (which increase yields 30-50%). Conservative estimate maybe around 28% of the world's calories will not make it into markets. Africa and Middle East will have famines while food prices everywhere else will skyrocket. This isn't even fear porn and calling it that and not doing something now about it will lead to a lot of needless suffering.
2023 looking grim if we don't do anything to reverse this, my guess is we'll try half-heartedly and fail.
Stay safe and love one another.
Not trading or financial advice.
Still overall bearish and expecting to break the channel maybe within a week or so to the downside.
I think people have not fully appreciated the monetary tightened environment we're in. Nearly everyone, both retail and institutions and corporations were credit addicts for the past decade and more. Everyone was already overleveraged. People have not saved up money for higher interests or inflation events like this one. At least for now, money will not be flowing into crypto or equities.
Nor have I really heard much talk about the absolutely unprecedented disaster coming for world food prices and security. 12% of the world's calories come from Ukraine and Russia's grain and oil seed exports. 25% of fertilizer as well (which increase yields 30-50%). Conservative estimate maybe around 28% of the world's calories will not make it into markets. Africa and Middle East will have famines while food prices everywhere else will skyrocket. This isn't even fear porn and calling it that and not doing something now about it will lead to a lot of needless suffering.
2023 looking grim if we don't do anything to reverse this, my guess is we'll try half-heartedly and fail.
Stay safe and love one another.
Not trading or financial advice.
