I don't know if there is any name for this movement, or how it relates to Elliot wave theory, which I haven't studied in-depth as yet, but I see this pattern repeat on many charts, and in many markets, and while nothing is certain and I could be wrong, it suggests to me that the bottom of BTC's April correction is nearly in.
Essentially a seven-wave movement. You see the same structure play out to the upside.
In this instance, it's impossible to find the five sub-waves in the major Wave 5, as the liquidations 18 April were so rapid.
But the rest of the subsequent structure seems to be playing out.
Wave 7 is always a repeat of the entire movement, on a smaller scale (i.e., the movement is fractal).
Ultimately, one major wave with two sub-waves, and three Wave 7s meeting at the end.
This should mark the bottom of the correction.
Where exactly that will come in for bitcoin is hard to say.
I'm charting this movement using the liquidation wick on the 0.702 Fibonacci level. On my profile you can see other scenarios (see the 1-3 scenario series on where the bottom might come in).
Important to this picture is the macro Fibonacci playing out, in my view, in the background.
Note also that the weekly 21 EMA (green staggered line) is hovering just below where I think the bottom may come in.
There are no guarantees here, but I think this is where this correction will end, and while 58.8k will then (on the 0.702 to the upside) become a vital level to clear, right now I'm leaning towards BTC surprising skeptics and clearing that level.
Feel free to comment.
Essentially a seven-wave movement. You see the same structure play out to the upside.
In this instance, it's impossible to find the five sub-waves in the major Wave 5, as the liquidations 18 April were so rapid.
But the rest of the subsequent structure seems to be playing out.
Wave 7 is always a repeat of the entire movement, on a smaller scale (i.e., the movement is fractal).
Ultimately, one major wave with two sub-waves, and three Wave 7s meeting at the end.
This should mark the bottom of the correction.
Where exactly that will come in for bitcoin is hard to say.
I'm charting this movement using the liquidation wick on the 0.702 Fibonacci level. On my profile you can see other scenarios (see the 1-3 scenario series on where the bottom might come in).
Important to this picture is the macro Fibonacci playing out, in my view, in the background.
Note also that the weekly 21 EMA (green staggered line) is hovering just below where I think the bottom may come in.
There are no guarantees here, but I think this is where this correction will end, and while 58.8k will then (on the 0.702 to the upside) become a vital level to clear, right now I'm leaning towards BTC surprising skeptics and clearing that level.
Feel free to comment.
Comment:
25 Apr 2021 17:01:24: Note that if BTC were to reach around 52k from where it is now, the very last section may be invalidated as a continuance of the crash structure and would become, instead, a mini Wyckoff accumulation phase. Essentially above Wave 4 within Wave 5 of the sub-wave. If that were to happen, the base is already in, at 47.5, as the end of a Wyckoff accumulation phase typically does not go as low as the previous low. Interestingly, it tends to end with a repeat of the crash structure on a micro scale.
Comment:
26 Apr 2021 04:09:54: Looks like a bull trap to me, but we'll see.
Comment:
26 Apr 2021 10:56:06: Didn't go as low as I expected, but you can see the crash structure repeat in the last section, so while I remain cautious, I'm accepting it as a bottom for now and moving forward.
Comment:
26 Apr 2021 11:17:02: Looking for a healthy retest and rejection to the upside at 50,010, which would align with the 0.5 on the micro level and the 2.618 at the macro. Possible stop loss hunt down to 49,421, but anything lower would flag caution of a fake out and possible continuance down to 45,788 or 44,800, for a 1W 21 EMA tap.
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