Tentatively we can assume the base is in. It came in higher than I expected, but BTC did in fact complete the crash structure (see linked analysis).
So now we can adjust the local Fibonacci and get a more accurate comparison between now and the January and February corrections.
Some observations:
1) Like February, and unlike January, the initial upside counter to the downside impulse was moderate. The downside wave as a whole appears smoother than either February or January. We might expect from this a shallower climb as BTC reclaims higher levels. February picked up momentum on this climb. We might expect the same now.
2) We can see on the February chart where the bottom came in (marked with a blue line). On the macro (bottom left, and see linked analysis), BTC held above the 2.382 level, at 45.7. This does suggest continuance to the upside.
3) On the macro, I would say we just saw printed the base of Wave 6. Now we're entering Wave 7, the final wave, in my view, until BTC's local top at around 80k.
4) If BTC follows February's trajectory more than that of January, we'll probably see a retest of 50,750 in the next day or so. This would align roughly to a 0.5 retrace on the upside impulse, and would align broadly on the macro to a retest of the 2.618 level, at 50,010.
5) The key level to clear now is the 0.702 to the upside at 59,560.
Feel free to comment.
So now we can adjust the local Fibonacci and get a more accurate comparison between now and the January and February corrections.
Some observations:
1) Like February, and unlike January, the initial upside counter to the downside impulse was moderate. The downside wave as a whole appears smoother than either February or January. We might expect from this a shallower climb as BTC reclaims higher levels. February picked up momentum on this climb. We might expect the same now.
2) We can see on the February chart where the bottom came in (marked with a blue line). On the macro (bottom left, and see linked analysis), BTC held above the 2.382 level, at 45.7. This does suggest continuance to the upside.
3) On the macro, I would say we just saw printed the base of Wave 6. Now we're entering Wave 7, the final wave, in my view, until BTC's local top at around 80k.
4) If BTC follows February's trajectory more than that of January, we'll probably see a retest of 50,750 in the next day or so. This would align roughly to a 0.5 retrace on the upside impulse, and would align broadly on the macro to a retest of the 2.618 level, at 50,010.
5) The key level to clear now is the 0.702 to the upside at 59,560.
Feel free to comment.
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