BTC: Macro arithmetic channel, bull run intact: Update
Quick update to this chart.
Essentially, I'm seeing a middle ground between a first chart I made ("BTC: Bullish bonanza opportunity incoming?" linked below) and the first version of this one.
Projecting the base of this current correction to come in this weekend at around 50.3k.
I rotated the channel to account for this possible new base. Interestingly, this adds more confluence and a new point of contact for the channel baseline on 11 December, which was a dip before the upside movement that broke the previous ATH.
I'm arriving to the projection of the near-term base by looking at the impact of the death cross that occurred in January, and by repositioning a Fibonacci measurement on the current correction on the 45 minute chart to put the 0.702 on the buy bounce, rather than the full liquidation wick down.
A bit of a hack, but cross-checked with February, there is broad confluence.
In both cases, BTC retraced to the 0.618, but no further. So I expect continuation to the downside with one more leg down.
The January death cross had roughly a -10.3% impact, which would translate on the log scale now to -6.28%. Adding this in gives roughly a projection of 50k.
In January, the death cross was quickly reversed. I expect the same now, especially given the narrative (which I don't really believe anyway), and how it might already be priced in, and for BTC to continue its bull run in the seventh wave up to around 83k.
Feel free to comment.
Essentially, I'm seeing a middle ground between a first chart I made ("BTC: Bullish bonanza opportunity incoming?" linked below) and the first version of this one.
Projecting the base of this current correction to come in this weekend at around 50.3k.
I rotated the channel to account for this possible new base. Interestingly, this adds more confluence and a new point of contact for the channel baseline on 11 December, which was a dip before the upside movement that broke the previous ATH.
I'm arriving to the projection of the near-term base by looking at the impact of the death cross that occurred in January, and by repositioning a Fibonacci measurement on the current correction on the 45 minute chart to put the 0.702 on the buy bounce, rather than the full liquidation wick down.
A bit of a hack, but cross-checked with February, there is broad confluence.
In both cases, BTC retraced to the 0.618, but no further. So I expect continuation to the downside with one more leg down.
The January death cross had roughly a -10.3% impact, which would translate on the log scale now to -6.28%. Adding this in gives roughly a projection of 50k.
In January, the death cross was quickly reversed. I expect the same now, especially given the narrative (which I don't really believe anyway), and how it might already be priced in, and for BTC to continue its bull run in the seventh wave up to around 83k.
Feel free to comment.
Comment:
On the macro Fibonacci, which is unchanged, it does make a lot of sense to see a second tap of the 2.618, With the channel adjusted as described above, there is now a nexus of his Fibonacci level and the base of the ascending channel. So I do expect a strong upside bounce. As I said in the description of the firs version of this chart, I don't see numbers at the macro. I see Fibonacci levels. I see strong upward momentum, and strong downward pressure. Downward moves, like now, grab liquidity in order that the wave can gather strength to continue up. The next key level is on 68.5. The upside bounce now, I think, will be strong enough to push up into this level.
Comment:
23 Apr 2021 12:35:25: Updating here:
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