trades-gone-wild

Incoming golden cross and historical price movements

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Every time BTC hits new all time highs (red circles), we see it followed by a bear market for at least a year before upward momentum picks back up.

I see a lot of optimistic technical analysis around the incoming "golden cross", but I think it is ignoring the greater trend that happens after new ATHs.

The last time we saw a golden cross form immediately after new ATHs (golden circles), it was quickly followed by a death cross and year plus bear market. Volume levels are also similar to what we are seeing now (low compared to recent ATH bull run).

The crypto market in general is vastly different from where it was in 2014 (major institutional investment, huge alt-coin market, more and expanded trading platforms, etc).

However, we have never seen BTC form a golden cross and go on another ATH bull run, immediately after new ATHs were just formed.

Although I think we'd all love BTC (and the market in general) to hit new ATHs again in the coming months, based on historical trends, I just don't think there's any way it can happen for at least a year or two.

What do you think??



--Crypto markets are full of risk, you should talk to a financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions--
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.