Cycles are long term fluctuating activities with 4 distinct periods: improvement, prosperity, recession, and depression. These periods may assume different names, but the basic concepts remains the same. In the improvement phase we turn from depression to prosperity. We typically see rising economic activities, increased production and investment and a rise in income and employment. In the prosperity phase we typically see rising interest rates, inflation, overall economic optimism, economic activity and high income.
In the recession phase we turn from prosperity to depression. We typically see falling demands, decline in income, low economic confidence and falling stock markets. In the depression phase we typically see a decline in consumption and demand, falling interest rates, deflation, economic pessimism and low income. Cycles can be used to find the best stocks to invest in, based on what kind of sectors and companies perform better in which period, e.g. cyclical stocks in the improvement phase and defensive stocks during the recession phase.
I don't think it makes sense to use normal TA on Bitcoin because it cannot be compared to any asset... except itself, so I've overlayed the early 2013 bubble (daily candles) on the current run (weekly). We'll peak on CME futures and then an exchange CEO will get kidnapped or something. I don't know. Nobody does. Good luck.
Still long as of my last linked trade:
Dear reader,
Market trends and cycles are a direct function of human psychology and the varied emotions during each phase. Bitcoin has been following the classical market cycle since its inception and there is no reason it won't follow it in the future.
Charles Dow was the first to make thorough effort to express the general trend of markets. Enjoy the analysis!
Do you remember when this exact same thing happened before?
Bar pattern is LTCBTC weekly from BTC-e in 2013, chart is recent Bittrex price action.
Immediately after this happened the first time, the new money-doublers (who make sure to tell all their friends about litecoin gainz) went to barely functioning Cryptsy and lost everything to Wolong trading a picture of ...
The and exit for this strategy was spot on at predicting the recent fall, we are now reaching close to the levels of the crash at the start of 2018. According to the cycle the market should reverse before breaking the previous low. Look at past charts of this cycle for more information.
Low 29th October
Establishes a 2 week cycle low
Next cycle low end of this week
Reversal established when index gapped above 7071 on 7/11
Double bottom (pullback) at 50% retracement off the reversal
31st October opening gap now filled
The combination of these factors signal a bullish rebound.
In this screen cast I explore the Halloween Effect -which is a seasonal pattern - going back to 2012.
My overall position is that from 2012, the Halloween Effect is more probable, However, it is not 100%.
Statistical studies have been tracking this effect based on data largely based on a far more data before 2012 (but including the time up to the the present). ...
This chart is speculation, based on previous Bitcoin 0.17% price cylces (high>high, low>low, high>low & low>high) - but mostly high>low and low>high. Notice the similar time frames on these cycles. I have included a couple of major resistance levels and FIB's for possible price reversals.
Hi, today i wanna discuss about cylic analysis.
this is long term projection for "position trader", coz opening position not only for month, but for years.
In this analysis we focus to 6 years cycle,
you can see that EURUSD perform a big 15 degree parallel channel up, still not break for 39 years, and still valid.
If we look cyclic lines, bearish take 6 years ...
Short term, a month or more of downside or sideways action before a trend reversal come October.
Trend indicators shown here, ADX, MACD, and SAR, all showing that the trend is still bearish. Until i see a crossover on the weekly macd, or the ADX move above 20, then i believe we are going to see further downside before any change in the current bearish trend.
It just keeps on steadily increasing. Could this be the top performer of 2018? If you aren’t keeping an eye on this then I think you are missing out.
Stay strong on your entries, let price come to you and fill your buys, don’t chase it. There will always be another good entry.
I missed this as you can see, but I’m waiting patiently for another good entry ...
Sometimes the healthiest thing you can do in Bitcoin is zoom out and take a look at the big picture. It's only then that you'll realise that a rather fundamental pattern has been repeating throughout 2018...
Following the hype at the end of 2017 and consequential bubble, January 6 marked the beginning of a huge drop removing more than 60% of BTC's value. The ...
Nothing more than playing around with the monthly log and heikin ashi candles to show the trend better. Pure hopium speculation...
Until we see some green on this time frame my inner bear is still winning.
Both RSI and Stoch are still pointing down as well, which indicates to me that we aren't out of the current downtrend just yet, despite all the bulls on ...
What a beautiful cycle on the stoch rsi, it's the kind of cycle that you wish you could turn back time and get involved with, consistent 15% + profits on each cycle. Will it continue, there is talk of an easy 1k sats by June. Worth keeping an eye on, and perhaps a good trade entry will be at the bottom of the 4 hr Stoch RSI cycle?
There's blood in the streets, and the smell of fear, we may even be witnessing capitulation.
But it never lasts that long. Unless this really is the end of crypto this time - we've all heard that one before.
This is just a rough little sketch on the zoomed out weekly (log scale), Apart from the Mt Gox prolonged bear market, with some big bear flags in that ...
This is a work in progress. I am not trading off this idea (yet); I'm waiting to see whether it develops as I expect in the future to make sure I'm not seeing patterns where there are none.
Spotting highs:
Teal lines = bearish divergence. This is where the RSI chart diverges from (does the opposite of) the price chart.
Basically: price goes up, while RSI goes ...
Crypto Charting Exercise:
An interesting method to spot "tops" for Bitcoin
1 Day $BTC chart in Log view.
Add RSI indicator.
Look for "RSI Divergence" = Where the RSI Chart does the opposite of (diverges from) the price chart.
I drew lines from daily close.
Spot a juicy pattern?
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