Prior chart showed weekly price action, as with fundamentals...technicals can provide more perspective when taking a top down approach (4HR).
BTC downside at the start of the Asia session sees 2 key shorter term trendlines and/or key price levels tested:
BTC downside at the start of the Asia session sees 2 key shorter term trendlines and/or key price levels tested:
- Break below trendline support at $17k big figure opens door to stops on weak longs triggered to the -
- next trendline support around $16.5k also littered with s/t stops for weak longs.
- $14k pivot intersects with a more medium term t/l support but a break below may see BTC on its back heel on the back of continued runs on stops, essentially longs cascading into covered shorts.
BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE LARGER PICTURE
ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP POSTED FRI , NOV 19, 2020
- 61.8% to 78.6 fibo level zone extended from the 1st wave of correction of the all-time highs provides clear positive risk: reward play for a downside correction to follow with entries preferably near the extended 78.6 fibo level short BTC at around $18,035 with stops above all time highs and just below the next big figure at $20099 and final take profit targets just above the key $12,500 pivot providing a 4:1 risk reward play.
BIG BTC SHORT ADJUSTMENTS
ENTRY: BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE AND 7 CONSECTIVE WEEK PATTERN
- ADDITIONAL SHORTS ABOVE CURRENT MARKET RATES TO CURRENT AVERAGE OF ABOUT $18516 as of Nov 22
STOPS (LOSSES): ADJUSTING HIGHER PRE-THANKSGIVING
- ADJUSTED HIGHER TO ABOVE 1.618 fibo level (downside wave starting at just below $13k to $4k) to $21,030 to avoid stop runs on potential volatility spikes over Thanksgiving holiday season.
LIMIT (PROFITS): CLOSING HALF AT $10,900 and REMAINDER @ $4K level
- T/PS ADJUSTED TO $10,900 and $4,000 for half a position each providing potential gains of roughly 98% on t/p level 1 and 360% if the final take profit hits at the $4k area equating to an average return of 274% with a risk percentage of just -8% on unleveraged positions
UPDATE: DROWN OUT THE NOISE, FOCUS ON THE TAPE
- Bullish Retail Sentiment High = Higher Probability of Contrarian Counter Shorts
- BTC valuations at $100k within a year by many analysts at banks also made same prediction for BTC to be trading at that price point by this point in time
- Stronger USD likely on flight to safety as US death tolls hitting record daily rates and we approach key year end growth numbers globally
- Low liquidity into the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday has typically seen vicious moves to the downside
- Max pain trade is definitively to the downside, not higher
Happy Holiday Weekend, and some may be thinking who this guy posting ridiculous r:r trade setups within this community...follow the links for a few hints:
- www.fxtradermagazine...nical-approaches.php
- www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/137431
- www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/142217
- www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/140167
- www.dailymotion.com/video/xq8njx...