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Bitcoin - Future possible Predictions

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
As an average we had a factor of 1.5 from each 'ATH' to the next, but we also can see that the movement in summer was with 1.85 much higher than the last with only 1.17..
The question here is does the adaption of many people change it again to a higher factor or does it stay lower..
Option 1: 19.7k * 1.05 = 20.685k (smaller with every atempt)
Option 2: 19.7k * 1.7 = 33.49k (like the last bigger correction Summer and September)

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