Hello everyone,
in yesterday post I spoke about what do I expect for Q1 2024 moving further ..
Today, I would like to elaborate in POINTS, WHY I think is necessarily to be VERY CAUTION in current Market conditions.
Will be using 15D timeframe to capture as much data as possible.
To get clearer picture of what is possible moving into future, we need to focus on what happend in past, even tho as ment before, market conditions are not EXTREMLY similar (due to highier inflation & interest rate!), but its closest we can get. Note, that current cutting cycle might be different for this exact reason, which could possibly mean that this process take longer and will have more pauses as in past. Aswell, bottom rate is expected to not be close to 0.
For better visualisation I put cutting process into GREEN CYRCLES, marked 1-5.
1.Terminal rate
2.First cut
3.First cutting pause
4.Continuation of rate cuts
5.New Terminal rate (bottom rate)
In the end of this process, PRICE came back very close to where it started Rallie and only then new Bullmarket occured.
Today, I think and expect that we are only somewhere in middle between points 1 and 2 of this whole process, and that should be reason for EXTREME CAUTION. Especially if we take into account that we are in elevated price level compared to previous year. Having in mind that last time cut occured that was THE POINT when market flipped. And even tho ATHs right now are not that close, is very possible that we keep coming closer to them in next months, IF there is no change in FED policy next meeting. AND THAT WOULD BEEN A TIME FOR EXTREME CAUTION!
This should stay relevant Until FED decide to Cut for the First Time.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
in yesterday post I spoke about what do I expect for Q1 2024 moving further ..
Today, I would like to elaborate in POINTS, WHY I think is necessarily to be VERY CAUTION in current Market conditions.
Will be using 15D timeframe to capture as much data as possible.
To get clearer picture of what is possible moving into future, we need to focus on what happend in past, even tho as ment before, market conditions are not EXTREMLY similar (due to highier inflation & interest rate!), but its closest we can get. Note, that current cutting cycle might be different for this exact reason, which could possibly mean that this process take longer and will have more pauses as in past. Aswell, bottom rate is expected to not be close to 0.
For better visualisation I put cutting process into GREEN CYRCLES, marked 1-5.
1.Terminal rate
2.First cut
3.First cutting pause
4.Continuation of rate cuts
5.New Terminal rate (bottom rate)
In the end of this process, PRICE came back very close to where it started Rallie and only then new Bullmarket occured.
Today, I think and expect that we are only somewhere in middle between points 1 and 2 of this whole process, and that should be reason for EXTREME CAUTION. Especially if we take into account that we are in elevated price level compared to previous year. Having in mind that last time cut occured that was THE POINT when market flipped. And even tho ATHs right now are not that close, is very possible that we keep coming closer to them in next months, IF there is no change in FED policy next meeting. AND THAT WOULD BEEN A TIME FOR EXTREME CAUTION!
This should stay relevant Until FED decide to Cut for the First Time.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
