Hello everyone,
lets jump in..
So bellow you can find screenshots, with every relevant timeframe to be looked at, to make a better educated guess at least in my opinion.
First of all, I need to say, that this Idea DO NOT have to play out immediately, IF ALL!
BUT Since Highest Timeframe we operating with is 3Month, there is still like 60Days window in which this CAN play out.
3M
2M
1M
15D
10D
5D
So this Whole IDEA, is Based on 3M candle/timeframe (basically quarter outlook), which still follow my Q1+FED outlook as next.. --> In which I ment there is higher chance of continuing Higher with time UNTIL FED start cutting Interest Rates... and in the mean time we Rallied.. BUT since we are reached Price targets close to ATHs' I think is needed to be even more carefull.. and this due to --> If we take a look at 3M chart, we can see that prior times in History, when we reached Closing price of 3M candle, IT WAS THE TIME WHEN WE PEAKED WITH PRICE FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. (And we already did it!) but there is still almost 2month to next FED meeting.. So Main Question is IF we will go Above ATHs' in this period of time, or We will follow what happend prior Cycles and thats correction... AND My honest answer is that I DONT KNOW, BUT if I HAVE TO pick one, I REMAIN EXTREMLY CAUTIOUS, since Right Now I see this more as "fake bull market"
BECAUSE, and this "Because" have two aspects- Micro/Macro economy and then what Charts are saying..
Firstly, if we check out Charts, we can see on EVERY SINGLE ONE, that we reached with Closing Price close to where ATHs Closes are, BUT we dont Close above them.. Which In my understanding of Market Increasing chances for revisiting Lower prices "when correct time come" BUT, in the meanwhile, there is still "TREND" which I would say is still "bullish" and for that Reason we can "be trying" to reach or break ATH.. and only "time shows and chart tell" if we will go there.. BUT, as I ment.. there is other factor and thats..
Micro/Macro economy outlook at things, And I would say.. "ITS NOT THE BEST ONE"! --> Inflation is STILL HIGH (due to FED) and it looks like it slowly starting to elevate again, Unemployment is STILL relative close to all time Lows, and Interest Rates are STILL HIGH.. on top of that, from last reports it looks like economy start Slowing down a little bit BUT Markets still looks like "they dont care". Which In my opinion is BIG Mistake, and for that reason, Im trying to evaluate things on Daily basis when New Important Market/Economy News happen.. especially, in time "Where people believe only way of going is Highier!"...
AND THATS BECAUSE- if we again, come back to our 3M chart, we can see there is 30D left on it.. and in those 30days market can change a LOT, AND We already reached price where In history was our "turning point" chart wise.. So, in my opinion, being a buyer right now is more risky then being seller.. , but I still label this IDEA as Neutral, since there is still lot of time remaining for Price to behave irational.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
lets jump in..
So bellow you can find screenshots, with every relevant timeframe to be looked at, to make a better educated guess at least in my opinion.
First of all, I need to say, that this Idea DO NOT have to play out immediately, IF ALL!
BUT Since Highest Timeframe we operating with is 3Month, there is still like 60Days window in which this CAN play out.
3M
So this Whole IDEA, is Based on 3M candle/timeframe (basically quarter outlook), which still follow my Q1+FED outlook as next.. --> In which I ment there is higher chance of continuing Higher with time UNTIL FED start cutting Interest Rates... and in the mean time we Rallied.. BUT since we are reached Price targets close to ATHs' I think is needed to be even more carefull.. and this due to --> If we take a look at 3M chart, we can see that prior times in History, when we reached Closing price of 3M candle, IT WAS THE TIME WHEN WE PEAKED WITH PRICE FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. (And we already did it!) but there is still almost 2month to next FED meeting.. So Main Question is IF we will go Above ATHs' in this period of time, or We will follow what happend prior Cycles and thats correction... AND My honest answer is that I DONT KNOW, BUT if I HAVE TO pick one, I REMAIN EXTREMLY CAUTIOUS, since Right Now I see this more as "fake bull market"
BECAUSE, and this "Because" have two aspects- Micro/Macro economy and then what Charts are saying..
Firstly, if we check out Charts, we can see on EVERY SINGLE ONE, that we reached with Closing Price close to where ATHs Closes are, BUT we dont Close above them.. Which In my understanding of Market Increasing chances for revisiting Lower prices "when correct time come" BUT, in the meanwhile, there is still "TREND" which I would say is still "bullish" and for that Reason we can "be trying" to reach or break ATH.. and only "time shows and chart tell" if we will go there.. BUT, as I ment.. there is other factor and thats..
Micro/Macro economy outlook at things, And I would say.. "ITS NOT THE BEST ONE"! --> Inflation is STILL HIGH (due to FED) and it looks like it slowly starting to elevate again, Unemployment is STILL relative close to all time Lows, and Interest Rates are STILL HIGH.. on top of that, from last reports it looks like economy start Slowing down a little bit BUT Markets still looks like "they dont care". Which In my opinion is BIG Mistake, and for that reason, Im trying to evaluate things on Daily basis when New Important Market/Economy News happen.. especially, in time "Where people believe only way of going is Highier!"...
AND THATS BECAUSE- if we again, come back to our 3M chart, we can see there is 30D left on it.. and in those 30days market can change a LOT, AND We already reached price where In history was our "turning point" chart wise.. So, in my opinion, being a buyer right now is more risky then being seller.. , but I still label this IDEA as Neutral, since there is still lot of time remaining for Price to behave irational.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
