dailytaguy

BTC Daily TA Neutral Bullish

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
BTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 51% BTC, 49% Cash. *SELL-OFF WATCH. The US June CPI report was released this morning and surpassed the 8.8% market consensus estimate with a 9.1% reading (Core CPI exceeded the 5.7% consensus estimate with a 5.9% reading). Cryptos, Equities, Treasuries, and Commodities initially sold off on the news but then came off of intraday lows to close the session flat or slightly up; all while USDX came off of a 20 year high of $108 in today's session. Logically, the Yield Curve (10 yr Treasury note yield fell below 2 yr Treasury note yield) inverted to levels not seen since 2007; which is prompting institutions like Bank of America to call for a 'mild recession' in 2022. Fed Funds Rate Futures are currently at 97.50, implying that markets expect a 100bps rate hike on 07/27 to get the EFFR (Effective Federal Funds Rate) from 1.58 (current) to 2.5; the current probability of this happening two weeks from now is around 70%. That said, it's still premature to assume that this high-CPI rally isn't a short squeeze because there isn't enough current data to support that inflation has peaked.* Price is currently testing $19417 support after forming a Double Top (Hidden Bearish Divergence with RSI + Stochastic) at $21.5k. Volume is Moderate and currently on track to break a three day streak of seller dominance if it is able to close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $22.5k, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 39 after bouncing off the uptrend line from 06/18 at 34, the next resistance is at 42.41. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down as it begins to form a trough at 44. MACD remains bullish but is trending down slightly as it forms a soft peak at -869 minor resistance; if it crosses below -1160 it would be a bearish crossover, the next support is at 30. ADX is currently trending down slightly and is forming a soft trough at 30 as Price is attempting to rally off of $20k, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX is to start trending up as Price goes up, this would be bullish but if ADX continues trending down as Price continues up this would be mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend support at $19417, the next likely target is a retest of the one-month high at $22k before potentially testing $24180 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here then it will potentially retest the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one clear close below) $19417.

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