Hi guys. what a rough night! difficult, anyways, i didn't lose to these whales! i first went long at 69 zone, with stop at 6867. i stopped, in risk of neckline breakdown, but found out that good volume was coming in at 68 zone, which usually indicates that it is the bottom! however for a bull div in low time frame, it could revisit 6800 zone so i went short 6880, sold it, went long at 68, and i hold it now!
crazy, crazy. bears try to make this bear trap, but i didn't lose! at times like this, you WASH out your emotions, KICK your fear. so that you win! however, i studied, analyzed more, now i have more conviction that this would go up. now, it will consolidate for a while at 68~69, and early 70.
let me first tell you what most TA's know, and most investors know. very simple, but really, genuine. my 4 steps of a uptrend cycle of BTC. everybody knows, but i think there is 4 phases in btc upward movement.
so this is last April chart. BTC always even in bullruns, show same pattern! it makes a lower low, or low at some point, double bottom or go lower, to make a bull div. that is phase1. so, 4 steps are.
phase1. hits bottom, lower to make a bull div.
phase2, it keeps going up, with no breakdown signals.
phase3, it retraces, not heavily, but just to cool down, regain momentum. rsi goes down, it will try to make a mid term bottom. phase4, it goes up, make higher high, or lower high, or simillar price. normally it makes a HH.
phase4. it makes a high, but makes a bear div on indicators.
guys this is it! so simple! so many elliott waves, wave5, wave 4,...yes i do know the basics, principles, but, this is really the simple answer, it never let's you down! at least in downtrends! so where are we now?
yes i think we are in phase3, in my speculation. we had a low, made a run, consolidation is happening in 68/69, and we have high chance to make a HH or LH in the next days. That means what? we can still long this, and see where it goes! of course, few obstacles, like the bearish ichimoku cloud on daily, we have only few days to go up, but, i do not think BTC is done just now. we have phase4 left! if it makes HH, with indicators making HH, then we can think
more upwards, which a dropping scenario may be invalidated.
now btc is extending the rising wedge though. you see how clever bulls and bears whales are? they are extending the time in 68/69 zone, bollinger band bands down, but low line band up, wedge sub line comes up. yes, they are trying to make 67,68 zone a solid mid term support! some can think this as bearish, but i think, short term, it is bullish! they are getting ready for next big move!
overall, it is bearish though. below chart is what we see in big picture in weekly or 1 month term? yes, such manipulation coming up here, but the endgame seems to be going down at some point.
anyway, hope you like my idea! today is august 31th! remember my last ta? if you are long, hold that for now. we might get lucky. my trading plan is.
1. open long
i already have opened at 68 zone. so i leave it, holding~
target is over 7200+
2. open short
short time period, it can consolidate from 68~70.5 or 7.1. i will update if this can work, maybe once at 7040 or 7050 to 69 zone? not so sure yet. it is starting to make a pattern now.
crazy, crazy. bears try to make this bear trap, but i didn't lose! at times like this, you WASH out your emotions, KICK your fear. so that you win! however, i studied, analyzed more, now i have more conviction that this would go up. now, it will consolidate for a while at 68~69, and early 70.
let me first tell you what most TA's know, and most investors know. very simple, but really, genuine. my 4 steps of a uptrend cycle of BTC. everybody knows, but i think there is 4 phases in btc upward movement.
so this is last April chart. BTC always even in bullruns, show same pattern! it makes a lower low, or low at some point, double bottom or go lower, to make a bull div. that is phase1. so, 4 steps are.
phase1. hits bottom, lower to make a bull div.
phase2, it keeps going up, with no breakdown signals.
phase3, it retraces, not heavily, but just to cool down, regain momentum. rsi goes down, it will try to make a mid term bottom. phase4, it goes up, make higher high, or lower high, or simillar price. normally it makes a HH.
phase4. it makes a high, but makes a bear div on indicators.
guys this is it! so simple! so many elliott waves, wave5, wave 4,...yes i do know the basics, principles, but, this is really the simple answer, it never let's you down! at least in downtrends! so where are we now?
yes i think we are in phase3, in my speculation. we had a low, made a run, consolidation is happening in 68/69, and we have high chance to make a HH or LH in the next days. That means what? we can still long this, and see where it goes! of course, few obstacles, like the bearish ichimoku cloud on daily, we have only few days to go up, but, i do not think BTC is done just now. we have phase4 left! if it makes HH, with indicators making HH, then we can think
more upwards, which a dropping scenario may be invalidated.
now btc is extending the rising wedge though. you see how clever bulls and bears whales are? they are extending the time in 68/69 zone, bollinger band bands down, but low line band up, wedge sub line comes up. yes, they are trying to make 67,68 zone a solid mid term support! some can think this as bearish, but i think, short term, it is bullish! they are getting ready for next big move!
overall, it is bearish though. below chart is what we see in big picture in weekly or 1 month term? yes, such manipulation coming up here, but the endgame seems to be going down at some point.
anyway, hope you like my idea! today is august 31th! remember my last ta? if you are long, hold that for now. we might get lucky. my trading plan is.
1. open long
i already have opened at 68 zone. so i leave it, holding~
target is over 7200+
2. open short
short time period, it can consolidate from 68~70.5 or 7.1. i will update if this can work, maybe once at 7040 or 7050 to 69 zone? not so sure yet. it is starting to make a pattern now.
Trade active:
so guys, today is an important day! those of you not in this, go long! it could revisit 6800, but maybe upwards. so i think 6880/6930 can be first buy, followed by 68.5level, lowest 6780/6800. it might not come down to those levels, just making higher highs. i am already in, so this trade is active now~
Comment:
1hr making an inverse h&s. where would it go? for those who entered long, put stoploss at 6740. if worried, 6800 is fine too. i entered at 6850, my stop is 6740. it can invalidate the inverse h&s, we never know. if so, i always come up with new strategy! if goes up, targets are 7100 least, but most likely 7200+. max is 74/75. good luck!
Comment:
little update. i think, from the looks of it, it has made the right shoulder? if so, btc drops near the head of this would invalidate. so stoploss should be around 6810~20. i think whales are making this pattern somehow. neckline is around 7000, if we break through that touch 7070~7100, don't sell look for upwards movement.
Comment:
guys, bitmex alone moved to 7000! now consolidating at 69.7~8, bitfinex is at the moment not trading. little strange at how things go here. anyway. good feeling! so guys you can sell this at 7070/7100, or 7240 or more. not sure how far it can go, but you can be conservative and sell freely at your own. if you have got in at 68 zone, now already 100 dollar profit here. stoploss set it tight at 6880(bottom of right shoulder), or 6840(head bottom).
Comment:
Ok. It rebounded but weaker then expected. Sell some of your longs.
Comment:
Btc weak. Maybe making another boring rising wedge to 7100 which will retrace to 69 levels.i sold some longs at 7050 now. It is weekend too which does not seem too convincing.Why are bulls wasting such a good chance to breakout?really do not want to short btc anymore. Lol
Comment:
hi guys! yes, btc went up!!!! i sold 30% of longs at 7050, now i will sold 40% more at 7200 level, which leaves me 30% left for 7.4/5 levels. would it come right away? i hope so, but indicators are hot, risking a drop at any moment. anyway, i am nailing it! happy trading!
Comment:
Ok guys. Btc broke above 7200 which is good but indicators are risking some bear divergence short term,like 4hour stoch is banding down. Chances are it could test 7100/7000 if the try to break above 7350 fail in the next 12~18hours. so watch out,dont fomo and buy at this level there might be a pullback.good weekend!
Comment:
So maybe short term short positions can work i think. Open short 7240/if goes over 7250,open 7300~7350.target shoul be 7100,and 7000.if go over 7350 to 7400ish stoploss.
Trade closed: target reached:
bitfinex touched 7400dollars! long target all reached. lets see how the market move now. it needs to safely stabilize 73/74 zone, or it will risk a big drop.