Apologies for not being as active with TA posts, I have been more focused on automated trading and in fact we are in process of working a relationship that will integrate our order book and order flow data from vcdepth.io into a major automated trading platform.
BTC is in a unique place worth mentioning. First, BTC has had a 5 year bull run never once breaking its 5 year ascending trendline in any meaningful way, until the Covid crash. I had mentioned previously if this support breaks in any meaningful way, get out. After we broke this trend line, BTC lost 50% of its value in two days finding a bottom near $4k.
The covid crash on equity markets was followed on crypto markets, we dropped well below the previous 5 year bull ascending trendline. We came back up to the 5 year trend line and we tried to convert it back to support but we had the ominous shadow of a 3 year descending trendline of resistance kick us back down as we tried to break back above the previous ascending bull line to convert it back to support, currently we have failed to do so. Furthermore it appears we may have formed a fairly large descending channel over the last year as marked on the chart with 1-4 numbering.
Its not too late to break out of this 3 year bear cycle and head back up especially since minus these two trend lines the current ascending trend seems positive. We are at a fairly critical point where BTC has to decide if its going to honor this 3 year bear resistance or push through and reclaim the previous 5 year bull support again. We are literally just past the crossing of these paths and it looks like the path of the bear is prevailing at the moment.
If we head back down we can see a potential descending channel here where the bottom of channel would catch BTC around the $4k range but likely to see a surge down around $3500, a lower low than the low we already saw in March this year (2020).
On the up-side global liquidity seems fairly strong still and if we can break out above this 3 year descending channel and reclaim the 5 year ascending trendline and then see a break of the previous $10,500 high this year, things would look quite positive.
Recently we have seen some staggering coincidences that would appear as though BTC has some what correlated price action to global stock markets. Right now with all the stimulus, stock markets have been recovering at otherwise unexplainable rates. The likely prolonged presence of the Covid virus and the already multi-year recovery in front of us leads me to believe that stock markets will correct fairly significantly. The question to me is how correlated are these markets now, watching equities markets may be view into what to expect in crypto markets and whether or not we can break this downtrend resistance. Unfortunately the S&P appears to be establishing the previous 10 year ascending bull trend line into resistance at the moment, without a push we could see equity markets pull back soon.
I am not saying long or short but a straddle would likely be pretty useful as we are likely to make a fairly significant move soon. My overall feeling looking at this chart is that there is currently a greater probability of going down versus up but again, we are still at a point that leaves the door open to escape this fate. Would probably be a good idea to keep your eyes on these trendlines, keep a tight stop loss, hedge your long positions.
This is not investment advice, these are my own observations and should not be used as analyst advice or a single source of research regarding the topic. DYOR!
BTC is in a unique place worth mentioning. First, BTC has had a 5 year bull run never once breaking its 5 year ascending trendline in any meaningful way, until the Covid crash. I had mentioned previously if this support breaks in any meaningful way, get out. After we broke this trend line, BTC lost 50% of its value in two days finding a bottom near $4k.
The covid crash on equity markets was followed on crypto markets, we dropped well below the previous 5 year bull ascending trendline. We came back up to the 5 year trend line and we tried to convert it back to support but we had the ominous shadow of a 3 year descending trendline of resistance kick us back down as we tried to break back above the previous ascending bull line to convert it back to support, currently we have failed to do so. Furthermore it appears we may have formed a fairly large descending channel over the last year as marked on the chart with 1-4 numbering.
Its not too late to break out of this 3 year bear cycle and head back up especially since minus these two trend lines the current ascending trend seems positive. We are at a fairly critical point where BTC has to decide if its going to honor this 3 year bear resistance or push through and reclaim the previous 5 year bull support again. We are literally just past the crossing of these paths and it looks like the path of the bear is prevailing at the moment.
If we head back down we can see a potential descending channel here where the bottom of channel would catch BTC around the $4k range but likely to see a surge down around $3500, a lower low than the low we already saw in March this year (2020).
On the up-side global liquidity seems fairly strong still and if we can break out above this 3 year descending channel and reclaim the 5 year ascending trendline and then see a break of the previous $10,500 high this year, things would look quite positive.
Recently we have seen some staggering coincidences that would appear as though BTC has some what correlated price action to global stock markets. Right now with all the stimulus, stock markets have been recovering at otherwise unexplainable rates. The likely prolonged presence of the Covid virus and the already multi-year recovery in front of us leads me to believe that stock markets will correct fairly significantly. The question to me is how correlated are these markets now, watching equities markets may be view into what to expect in crypto markets and whether or not we can break this downtrend resistance. Unfortunately the S&P appears to be establishing the previous 10 year ascending bull trend line into resistance at the moment, without a push we could see equity markets pull back soon.
I am not saying long or short but a straddle would likely be pretty useful as we are likely to make a fairly significant move soon. My overall feeling looking at this chart is that there is currently a greater probability of going down versus up but again, we are still at a point that leaves the door open to escape this fate. Would probably be a good idea to keep your eyes on these trendlines, keep a tight stop loss, hedge your long positions.
This is not investment advice, these are my own observations and should not be used as analyst advice or a single source of research regarding the topic. DYOR!