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Today I figured it was time to update my long term trend analysis with Bitcoin and where I see us going from here.
There is a few key factors that go into each Bitcoin cycle and this post will cover them in detail.
Let's get right into it then!
Every Bitcoin Hype Cycle starts with a steady growth on the upside followed by a massive parabolic rise that takes us to new highs.
What is it that causes such immense hype to send us to new highs? Is it Bullish News or is it something different?
Well, it's a mix of both actually. See, Every cycle has a catalyst and that catalyst is what's known as the, "Bitcoin Halving."
What is a halving you ask? Every 4 years the mining reward gets cut in half. This is an event that creates even more scarcity in an already scarce supply driven market.
How has the halving worked in the past? Well, its important to know exactly how much the mining reward used to be and where we currently stand now.
The first Bitcoin halving happened in 2012. Initially, the reward was BTC 50 per block and this was the case until 28 November 2012 when block 210,000 was reached. At that point, the reward was halved to BTC 25. This caused a massive parabolic cycle which we saw shortly after the date indicated on the chart below. In 2016, we had the second Bitcoin halving On the 9 July 2016, which brought the reward down to BTC 12.5, which was the major catalyst for the cycle we saw through 2017. Now, this brings us to current times in 2019 where Bitcoin saw a low of $3,200 roughly 85% down from ATH. Everybody knows how these cycles work that's been here long enough to see. We have massive parabolic rises followed by long drawn out bear markets. So, when is the next halving? Will Bitcoin start moving bullish before then? On may 25th 2020 the next halving will take place which we will see another major catalyst that will push Bitcoin's value to new highs. Based off previous cycles I believe it is very likely we start the bull market even before the next halving. Remember, smart money knows this is coming and they will start accumulating before that time.
Now you know how halvings work and what happens with Bitcoin in the time after it happens however, what happens before that time?
Based off studying previous cycles I have found a similar pattern that has played out in both the last cycles.
The last cycles showed that once broken from the major downtrend in Bitcoin, we start two small, "leg ups" before the coming halving.
Now, it's important to remember that no two cycles will ever be exactly the same however, this is still something we should watch for in the mean time.
Below I have labeled the two leg ups by the black boxes that follow before every Bitcoin hype cycle. Thus far, after the end of the second leg up is when the halving starts and pushes price well beyond ATH. This is what I will be watching for with the coming cycle we are gearing towards now.
Now is the perfect time to be putting money away into your long term bags. Am I telling you to FOMO with current prices? Of course not. Be smart however, don't forget how much of a discount you are seeing across the board of crypto. you have the chance to create lasting wealth for yourself and others in this time, Don't squander your opportunity!
Today I figured it was time to update my long term trend analysis with Bitcoin and where I see us going from here.
There is a few key factors that go into each Bitcoin cycle and this post will cover them in detail.
Let's get right into it then!
Every Bitcoin Hype Cycle starts with a steady growth on the upside followed by a massive parabolic rise that takes us to new highs.
What is it that causes such immense hype to send us to new highs? Is it Bullish News or is it something different?
Well, it's a mix of both actually. See, Every cycle has a catalyst and that catalyst is what's known as the, "Bitcoin Halving."
What is a halving you ask? Every 4 years the mining reward gets cut in half. This is an event that creates even more scarcity in an already scarce supply driven market.
How has the halving worked in the past? Well, its important to know exactly how much the mining reward used to be and where we currently stand now.
The first Bitcoin halving happened in 2012. Initially, the reward was BTC 50 per block and this was the case until 28 November 2012 when block 210,000 was reached. At that point, the reward was halved to BTC 25. This caused a massive parabolic cycle which we saw shortly after the date indicated on the chart below. In 2016, we had the second Bitcoin halving On the 9 July 2016, which brought the reward down to BTC 12.5, which was the major catalyst for the cycle we saw through 2017. Now, this brings us to current times in 2019 where Bitcoin saw a low of $3,200 roughly 85% down from ATH. Everybody knows how these cycles work that's been here long enough to see. We have massive parabolic rises followed by long drawn out bear markets. So, when is the next halving? Will Bitcoin start moving bullish before then? On may 25th 2020 the next halving will take place which we will see another major catalyst that will push Bitcoin's value to new highs. Based off previous cycles I believe it is very likely we start the bull market even before the next halving. Remember, smart money knows this is coming and they will start accumulating before that time.
Now you know how halvings work and what happens with Bitcoin in the time after it happens however, what happens before that time?
Based off studying previous cycles I have found a similar pattern that has played out in both the last cycles.
The last cycles showed that once broken from the major downtrend in Bitcoin, we start two small, "leg ups" before the coming halving.
Now, it's important to remember that no two cycles will ever be exactly the same however, this is still something we should watch for in the mean time.
Below I have labeled the two leg ups by the black boxes that follow before every Bitcoin hype cycle. Thus far, after the end of the second leg up is when the halving starts and pushes price well beyond ATH. This is what I will be watching for with the coming cycle we are gearing towards now.
Now is the perfect time to be putting money away into your long term bags. Am I telling you to FOMO with current prices? Of course not. Be smart however, don't forget how much of a discount you are seeing across the board of crypto. you have the chance to create lasting wealth for yourself and others in this time, Don't squander your opportunity!
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