what happened:
the top is probably in for this cycle based on historical indicators: pi cycle, 200 ema loss on the daily and Ethereum making new ath 3 weeks after btc ath just like in 2017-2018 to mark the end of alt season.
what will likely happen:
everyone including me is now expecting some sort of mean reversion to 50k~ to unload underwater bags and get a chance to re-short. prepare for the possibility that we might not even get a dead cat bounce to 42k when you consider that everyone also expected a blow off top like 2017-2018 but instead got a textbook wyckoff distribution.
what to consider:
this was all a shakeout and by some miracle we break 60k later this year, then its probable we will see one final push to new ath in which case bags would need to be rebought but with substantially reduced size to mitigate risk.
what to expect:
although past bear market results are not a guarantee of future performance, a 80% retrace (90% for alts) by next year is a probably a good area to plan for accumulation. its also time to leave dyno coins like xrp and litecoin behind and instead focus on areas that generate revenue and growth such as defi and dexes.
what to do:
stick around and learn to trade the bear market, tradfi etc. shitpost on twitter . Or simply, see you again at the casino when the next bull run starts - the 2024 block halving.
somewhat ironically, there was truth to "this time its different"
the top is probably in for this cycle based on historical indicators: pi cycle, 200 ema loss on the daily and Ethereum making new ath 3 weeks after btc ath just like in 2017-2018 to mark the end of alt season.
what will likely happen:
everyone including me is now expecting some sort of mean reversion to 50k~ to unload underwater bags and get a chance to re-short. prepare for the possibility that we might not even get a dead cat bounce to 42k when you consider that everyone also expected a blow off top like 2017-2018 but instead got a textbook wyckoff distribution.
what to consider:
this was all a shakeout and by some miracle we break 60k later this year, then its probable we will see one final push to new ath in which case bags would need to be rebought but with substantially reduced size to mitigate risk.
what to expect:
although past bear market results are not a guarantee of future performance, a 80% retrace (90% for alts) by next year is a probably a good area to plan for accumulation. its also time to leave dyno coins like xrp and litecoin behind and instead focus on areas that generate revenue and growth such as defi and dexes.
what to do:
stick around and learn to trade the bear market, tradfi etc. shitpost on twitter . Or simply, see you again at the casino when the next bull run starts - the 2024 block halving.
somewhat ironically, there was truth to "this time its different"