I will mark this chart as long, but READ THIS DESCRIPTION. I am not indicating that you long from the get go. Please read my thesis to see when and how you should enter these positions.
Barclays hit the initial target I set almost instantly. From there, it's been consolidating, choosing where to go from that area. To me, it seems as if it'll be down, and then up. Stocks don't tend to go up, then fall slightly, and then boost right back up. Tying in with the COVID-19 pandemic, I don't think it's likely that Barclays has the heart to fight through the terrors as of yet.
We can see how well Barclays followed the trendline that I set out. It hit is almost perfectly, but then proceeded to push back upwards from there on.This leaves us in a tricky position.
I can only post one thesis on a chart, although I actually have two.
Number one is one NOT on the chart. The thesis for this is that Barclays continue their run upwards off of the trendline and touch it one again, but then print a divergence and get out of the hole that they are in. I think this is more unlikely because of the traction needed to get out of the area that they're in. Their chart looks similar to HSBC , in that it's not unlikely that they will fall back into the bottom range. However, if Barclays manage to hold the consolidation period they're in, and print a nice push upwards, then it's safe to say we will hit the first (and potentially second) target with little to no effort.
Now for my second thesis. This is the one that's on the chart. As you can see, I have planted two buying zones on the chart. The reasoning for this is due to the difference between CFD and Stock trading. If you trade CFD's, it's more worth it to wait until the 75% zone. If you buy and hold stocks, it's safer to buy into the 25% zone AND the 75% zone should it hit. Use both zones at your own discretion. My prediction is that Barclays will lose the trendline, get trapped underneath it, and then proceed to fall under the line to the buying zones plotted. From here, it will try and reclaim its previous trend by pushing through the resistance; to which it should partially falter and then succeed, I have not included the resistance on here because if you enter in the two zones plotted, it should be rather irrelevant.
Hopefully this thesis gives some of you a clearer idea on what to do in this scenario. A recovery in imminent, but not immediate.