All AUD Pairs Price Action Break Down (No Bias Going In)
Disclaimer:
Any of the content presented on my page showing my analysis of the market is just that, an analysis which means this is my personal opinion of where the price is going to go. Do not by any means take this simple analysis for a reason to enter a trade, I am not presenting these analyses as a form of signals, simply a way to get feedback and opinions from others on how my trades look. Take this trade at your own risk, but know forex is a risky market that you can make a lot of money but can lose that money or even more just as fast, enter these markets with your own risk and good luck with your trading :).
What is up traders, this week we are going to breakdown all of the EUR pairs that I trade and do a full analysis for these pairs and we will be going through the Weekly, Daily, and Hourly to get a full view of these pairs. Hopefully this very detailed analysis help you get a bigger picture of what these pairs might do this week. Remember I will be posting more and more content like this so if you like these kinds of post, please leave a follow so you can stay up to date on how I have been doing.
Lets get right into the week and please let me know how you like these kind of posts.
Weekly Bias: Bearish Bias
Daily Bias: Bullish Bias
Hourly Bias: No Bias
AUD/CAD:
Weekly Analysis:
As you can see in the previous few 20 candles there is what seems like a potential downtrend, we are approaching the bottom of the zone that I marked up but we have to see where price goes before jumping the gun. Even on the weekly chart we can see after breaking back into this zone we have marked up we see that price bounced between this zone multiple times and showed weakness to the upside which leaves me to believe that there is some weakness to the top side. After bouncing around for a while price had tried breaking out of this zone earlier last week and was somewhat successful before going back up to this now resistance zone around 0.91100 area. Now price is retesting this area as a potential zone and we can see some continuation to the downside, which we would need more momentum and a lot more confirmation candles before we decide to do anything.
Daily Analysis:
You can basically see the same process of price going to the top and trying to break through that zone multiple times but on the Hourly you can see a little more clearly that price had tried to make a move up multiple times but really had no success which is why we see some big wicks to the top side. I put arrows pointing to where price had tried to make a move to the top side but got shut down pretty quickly, this is what we would want to see if we decide to go short on this pair. The only concern here is that on Friday close we saw price close above this resistance zone I have marked up, this could just be a simple retest and a continuation to the downside but if it continues on lower time frames making new highs then we would not be looking to take a short trade anymore. For anything to happen or before we think of even marking up a potential trade we really need to see more candles to the downside that close below some recent lows with a good sized candle.
Hourly Analysis:
Here on the Hourly time frame this kind of shows that there is more momentum recently to the top side which is why we saw such a big spike on the daily and weekly time frames. This could be a reversal and price is getting ready to make a big move to the top side, even with the last few hourly candles you can see there is some momentum to the downside but it is not enough to be certain it will go to the downside. We would need a break of that black line right below price and a few good sized candles without much rejection to go to the downside. On the other hand, If you are looking to buy here, you can wait for price to keep bouncing and a close above the recent highs that price had recently pushed down from. The next few candles will really be the final nail in the coffin for where this pair is going to go, it can really go both ways since there has been more recent bullish momentum but price is overall in a downtrend on the higher time frames from what I can see.
AUD/CHF:
Weekly Analysis:
For the higher time frames you can really see how price can make big moves in a direction and then stall out completely and maybe even reverse on you. Price had made multiple moves to the downside but reached the bottom, which is where that bottom black line is. Price tried making a move to break the lows but got rejected and price had made a pretty big push back up making a high for this range, and showing that there is still weakness to the upside around this 0.68830 area. Once price showed weakness to the upside the bears had really taken advantage of this and took price and ran with it, you can really see this cause the most recent big 3 candles had not only cleared the lows of the many previous weeks but had made a 500 pip move in only three weeks. This shows that there is a lot of momentum to the downside and there are no buyers that are able to keep price from dropping, this could show a good short trade, but we also have to pay attention to the most recent bullish candle which might be a sign of a reversal. Price had closed above the most recent bearish bar with ease which may cause some problems if price decides to go back to this zone before making a move. We need to look on lower time frames to get a better idea and we would also need to see more momentum confirming that there are still sellers in the market.
Daily Analysis:
When you get a zoomed in view on the Daily timeframe you can see that there is indeed some momentum to the upside and we might need to watch out for price reversing to the topside or it may just be a pullback before making a move. Since we do not have a trade in yet and we want to stay open minded, we are really waiting for anything to happen. I would like to see a short position but if price decides to make a move upwards and break through my top most black line, only then will I be thinking of going long on this pair. Anyways, like I had already mentioned we will want to see more momentum breaking a recent high/low before we take a trade.
Hourly Analysis:
You can see that price really had no problem at all pushing to make new recent highs, and that reversal was a pretty big reversal. After reversing a little bit and pushing back into this range price has just been stuck in a 50 pip range within the range itself. We would want to see a break and retest of one of these zone before we think about taking any kind of trade.
AUD/NZD:
Weekly Analysis:
Price in the past 100 or so weeks has been stuck in a very big range which is marked above in the blue square that I have marked up on the chart. Price was bouncing from top to bottom a few times in the past and we can kind of see it repeating itself in another range which I have marked up in the black lines. Price had made a very big move to the downside and just seemed to freeze once price had tried breaking down near the bottom black line I have marked up, even in the past price had bounced around this area multiple times already. Once we saw that rejection to the downside we can further expect a bounce off of this zone to the upside but since I am not a reversal trader I would not personally take this trade to the upside but instead I am looking for price to reject this black line it is already interacting with and make a move to the black line towards the bottom. We would really need to look at lower time frames before doing anything, but if we see price make a good rejection to the top side and make a good few candles to the downside and break through this area then we could potentially see a trade lining up for us.
Daily Analysis:
On the Daily time frame there really is not too much that changes that would change what I had already voiced above. We can the wicks a lot more defined and detailed here and we can also already see price starting to reject this top black line a little bit. We would really need price to make a move to one side of these two areas before I get into a trade, while this pair is in a consolidation phase, I do not want to be caught in a trade just holding and stressing out about it over the weeks. That is why I always require some momentum before getting into a trade, so hopefully I instantly get some kind of profit in which I can lock this in or move my stop loss closer and plan on holding the trade for longer term.
Hourly Analysis:
Wow! Here this shows that there could be a potential rejection to the topside and a break of some of the lows that had recently been formed. Price at the top and closest to the recent price had shown multiple candles with wicks to the upside and price has kind of stalled out and has been going sideways ever since. I will need more confirmation on all time frames before getting into a trade even think of taking the trade in general.
AUD/USD Analysis:
Weekly Analysis:
In the chart above, you can see that price really started to consolidate near the top where the blue square is. Price had really stalled out around that are and showed that there was no more gas to keep this train going. Price had made multiple candles with big wicks to the upside during this square zone and had no luck each and every time. Not until the week of June 14, price had broken out of this zone make almost a 250+ pip move in a single week! This showed that there was no more momentum to the upside and that the downside had a really easy time while making this kind of move. Price had continued and continued to make lower lows until it reached that black line towards the bottom of the chart, once price reached here it made a really big reversal like move and made a big move to the upside. In the matter of two weeks price had closed above the big bearish candle on the week of August 23, this shows that for two weeks straight there was more bullish momentum in the market. It was not until price had reach the 0.7500 zone until it started to show weakness to the top side once again. At this point I can see price going both ways but would want a break of the lower black line because, there could be a really big move here, if we get the right entry we can get in this trade for a very low risk amount but can still come out on top with a pretty penny. We still need a few more bearish candles and also a lot more confirmation before we think about place a trade.
Daily Analysis:
You can really see that price had made multiple candles that confirm that there is still more momentum in the bears than the bulls. You can see this directly on the chart when the candles on the way down really have no wicks at all, they decided they wanted to make a set of lower lows and it set out on that mission right away. We only saw a few places throughout this move that could have been bullish but they all ended up closing bearish, even with a few neutral candles thrown in there. But, now after following the previous weeks you can see that the bulls are starting to take control again and are starting to make their break for it. They are showing not a lot of weakness to the topside besides the closing of last week and the open of this week going a bit sideways. We could either see price continue up and we could possibly get a trade when price retest a zone we have marked up or when price continues to the down side and if that happens I will also be looking for a break and retest of one of my zones. We still need a lot more information put in front of us before we decide to do anything else.
Hourly Analysis:
With a really detailed view of this chart on the Hourly timeframe, we can really see that price had made a pretty big reversal and on this timeframe this pair looks like it is in a total uptrend. As of right now price is in the middle of being bullish or bearish, so I really do not have any bias on this pair yet even though I would like to see a drop, I am prepared for any movement to retest one of my zones and potentially allow me to get into a trade. We need more information before we start to place trades but we will need a few candles closing below/above a zone for us to get into a trade.
Risk management Tip:
I really like using a quarter percent of my total capital, before you go off saying you cannot make money risking this little amount of money. You can make money, of course it will not be anything until you have a very deep pocket, it will keep you consistent and will allow you to make winners big and cut losers early. As long as you can win sixty percent of your trades and your Risk to reward is at at least a two to one then you can be very profitable if you keep your risk management in check.
Conclusion:
I know this is a lot of information to take in, but I really appreciate you making it to the end and hopefully you had learned at least something while going through my post. If I missed anything that you would like to see in the future please let me know so I can try to figure something out for you
Like always, please feel free to reach out to me with any questions or ideas via the comment section or private message and I will get back to you as soon as possible.
Thanks again,
KeySlot
Any of the content presented on my page showing my analysis of the market is just that, an analysis which means this is my personal opinion of where the price is going to go. Do not by any means take this simple analysis for a reason to enter a trade, I am not presenting these analyses as a form of signals, simply a way to get feedback and opinions from others on how my trades look. Take this trade at your own risk, but know forex is a risky market that you can make a lot of money but can lose that money or even more just as fast, enter these markets with your own risk and good luck with your trading :).
What is up traders, this week we are going to breakdown all of the EUR pairs that I trade and do a full analysis for these pairs and we will be going through the Weekly, Daily, and Hourly to get a full view of these pairs. Hopefully this very detailed analysis help you get a bigger picture of what these pairs might do this week. Remember I will be posting more and more content like this so if you like these kinds of post, please leave a follow so you can stay up to date on how I have been doing.
Lets get right into the week and please let me know how you like these kind of posts.
Weekly Bias: Bearish Bias
Daily Bias: Bullish Bias
Hourly Bias: No Bias
AUD/CAD:
Weekly Analysis:
As you can see in the previous few 20 candles there is what seems like a potential downtrend, we are approaching the bottom of the zone that I marked up but we have to see where price goes before jumping the gun. Even on the weekly chart we can see after breaking back into this zone we have marked up we see that price bounced between this zone multiple times and showed weakness to the upside which leaves me to believe that there is some weakness to the top side. After bouncing around for a while price had tried breaking out of this zone earlier last week and was somewhat successful before going back up to this now resistance zone around 0.91100 area. Now price is retesting this area as a potential zone and we can see some continuation to the downside, which we would need more momentum and a lot more confirmation candles before we decide to do anything.
Daily Analysis:
You can basically see the same process of price going to the top and trying to break through that zone multiple times but on the Hourly you can see a little more clearly that price had tried to make a move up multiple times but really had no success which is why we see some big wicks to the top side. I put arrows pointing to where price had tried to make a move to the top side but got shut down pretty quickly, this is what we would want to see if we decide to go short on this pair. The only concern here is that on Friday close we saw price close above this resistance zone I have marked up, this could just be a simple retest and a continuation to the downside but if it continues on lower time frames making new highs then we would not be looking to take a short trade anymore. For anything to happen or before we think of even marking up a potential trade we really need to see more candles to the downside that close below some recent lows with a good sized candle.
Hourly Analysis:
Here on the Hourly time frame this kind of shows that there is more momentum recently to the top side which is why we saw such a big spike on the daily and weekly time frames. This could be a reversal and price is getting ready to make a big move to the top side, even with the last few hourly candles you can see there is some momentum to the downside but it is not enough to be certain it will go to the downside. We would need a break of that black line right below price and a few good sized candles without much rejection to go to the downside. On the other hand, If you are looking to buy here, you can wait for price to keep bouncing and a close above the recent highs that price had recently pushed down from. The next few candles will really be the final nail in the coffin for where this pair is going to go, it can really go both ways since there has been more recent bullish momentum but price is overall in a downtrend on the higher time frames from what I can see.
AUD/CHF:
Weekly Analysis:
For the higher time frames you can really see how price can make big moves in a direction and then stall out completely and maybe even reverse on you. Price had made multiple moves to the downside but reached the bottom, which is where that bottom black line is. Price tried making a move to break the lows but got rejected and price had made a pretty big push back up making a high for this range, and showing that there is still weakness to the upside around this 0.68830 area. Once price showed weakness to the upside the bears had really taken advantage of this and took price and ran with it, you can really see this cause the most recent big 3 candles had not only cleared the lows of the many previous weeks but had made a 500 pip move in only three weeks. This shows that there is a lot of momentum to the downside and there are no buyers that are able to keep price from dropping, this could show a good short trade, but we also have to pay attention to the most recent bullish candle which might be a sign of a reversal. Price had closed above the most recent bearish bar with ease which may cause some problems if price decides to go back to this zone before making a move. We need to look on lower time frames to get a better idea and we would also need to see more momentum confirming that there are still sellers in the market.
Daily Analysis:
When you get a zoomed in view on the Daily timeframe you can see that there is indeed some momentum to the upside and we might need to watch out for price reversing to the topside or it may just be a pullback before making a move. Since we do not have a trade in yet and we want to stay open minded, we are really waiting for anything to happen. I would like to see a short position but if price decides to make a move upwards and break through my top most black line, only then will I be thinking of going long on this pair. Anyways, like I had already mentioned we will want to see more momentum breaking a recent high/low before we take a trade.
Hourly Analysis:
You can see that price really had no problem at all pushing to make new recent highs, and that reversal was a pretty big reversal. After reversing a little bit and pushing back into this range price has just been stuck in a 50 pip range within the range itself. We would want to see a break and retest of one of these zone before we think about taking any kind of trade.
AUD/NZD:
Weekly Analysis:
Price in the past 100 or so weeks has been stuck in a very big range which is marked above in the blue square that I have marked up on the chart. Price was bouncing from top to bottom a few times in the past and we can kind of see it repeating itself in another range which I have marked up in the black lines. Price had made a very big move to the downside and just seemed to freeze once price had tried breaking down near the bottom black line I have marked up, even in the past price had bounced around this area multiple times already. Once we saw that rejection to the downside we can further expect a bounce off of this zone to the upside but since I am not a reversal trader I would not personally take this trade to the upside but instead I am looking for price to reject this black line it is already interacting with and make a move to the black line towards the bottom. We would really need to look at lower time frames before doing anything, but if we see price make a good rejection to the top side and make a good few candles to the downside and break through this area then we could potentially see a trade lining up for us.
Daily Analysis:
On the Daily time frame there really is not too much that changes that would change what I had already voiced above. We can the wicks a lot more defined and detailed here and we can also already see price starting to reject this top black line a little bit. We would really need price to make a move to one side of these two areas before I get into a trade, while this pair is in a consolidation phase, I do not want to be caught in a trade just holding and stressing out about it over the weeks. That is why I always require some momentum before getting into a trade, so hopefully I instantly get some kind of profit in which I can lock this in or move my stop loss closer and plan on holding the trade for longer term.
Hourly Analysis:
Wow! Here this shows that there could be a potential rejection to the topside and a break of some of the lows that had recently been formed. Price at the top and closest to the recent price had shown multiple candles with wicks to the upside and price has kind of stalled out and has been going sideways ever since. I will need more confirmation on all time frames before getting into a trade even think of taking the trade in general.
AUD/USD Analysis:
Weekly Analysis:
In the chart above, you can see that price really started to consolidate near the top where the blue square is. Price had really stalled out around that are and showed that there was no more gas to keep this train going. Price had made multiple candles with big wicks to the upside during this square zone and had no luck each and every time. Not until the week of June 14, price had broken out of this zone make almost a 250+ pip move in a single week! This showed that there was no more momentum to the upside and that the downside had a really easy time while making this kind of move. Price had continued and continued to make lower lows until it reached that black line towards the bottom of the chart, once price reached here it made a really big reversal like move and made a big move to the upside. In the matter of two weeks price had closed above the big bearish candle on the week of August 23, this shows that for two weeks straight there was more bullish momentum in the market. It was not until price had reach the 0.7500 zone until it started to show weakness to the top side once again. At this point I can see price going both ways but would want a break of the lower black line because, there could be a really big move here, if we get the right entry we can get in this trade for a very low risk amount but can still come out on top with a pretty penny. We still need a few more bearish candles and also a lot more confirmation before we think about place a trade.
Daily Analysis:
You can really see that price had made multiple candles that confirm that there is still more momentum in the bears than the bulls. You can see this directly on the chart when the candles on the way down really have no wicks at all, they decided they wanted to make a set of lower lows and it set out on that mission right away. We only saw a few places throughout this move that could have been bullish but they all ended up closing bearish, even with a few neutral candles thrown in there. But, now after following the previous weeks you can see that the bulls are starting to take control again and are starting to make their break for it. They are showing not a lot of weakness to the topside besides the closing of last week and the open of this week going a bit sideways. We could either see price continue up and we could possibly get a trade when price retest a zone we have marked up or when price continues to the down side and if that happens I will also be looking for a break and retest of one of my zones. We still need a lot more information put in front of us before we decide to do anything else.
Hourly Analysis:
With a really detailed view of this chart on the Hourly timeframe, we can really see that price had made a pretty big reversal and on this timeframe this pair looks like it is in a total uptrend. As of right now price is in the middle of being bullish or bearish, so I really do not have any bias on this pair yet even though I would like to see a drop, I am prepared for any movement to retest one of my zones and potentially allow me to get into a trade. We need more information before we start to place trades but we will need a few candles closing below/above a zone for us to get into a trade.
Risk management Tip:
I really like using a quarter percent of my total capital, before you go off saying you cannot make money risking this little amount of money. You can make money, of course it will not be anything until you have a very deep pocket, it will keep you consistent and will allow you to make winners big and cut losers early. As long as you can win sixty percent of your trades and your Risk to reward is at at least a two to one then you can be very profitable if you keep your risk management in check.
Conclusion:
I know this is a lot of information to take in, but I really appreciate you making it to the end and hopefully you had learned at least something while going through my post. If I missed anything that you would like to see in the future please let me know so I can try to figure something out for you
Like always, please feel free to reach out to me with any questions or ideas via the comment section or private message and I will get back to you as soon as possible.
Thanks again,
KeySlot
