Head and shoulders formation taking effect with a broken neckline, price has rejected from the weekly support (successfully closing above on the daily TF). Downside risk will be dependent on geo political risk , this affects the flows towards/out of the Swiss Franc.
I thought I would try out the video feature on Trading View. Excuse the background noise. As the video hasn't been scripted and it's difficult to explain how I frame the markets without spending over an hour going through it in detail, I did my best to convey my outlook on the EURUSD.
1. Larger shorts are still in play and have not yet failed.
AUDNZD retracing into key horizontal and fib support levels, with what looks like a dead cat @ 0.382 and Feb high.
50 and 100 EMAs on the daily could also act as support in between the 0.383 and 0.5.
Previous horizontal supports matching with the 0.5 and 0.618 fibs.
Obviously the 0.382 ,Feb high could still hold and waiting for the 0.5, 0.618 level could leave us...
As I said last week, Eu broke old intermediate lows and make new intermediate lows, all this because dollar reach 97... Now I am expecting that dollar falls that means an up move for EU and all the pairs related to dollar.
I think that EU will make a little retracement and then go around 1.435 or a little bit more. Also I think that EU wont make new intermediate...
Neutral bias on Gold at the moment, after respecting the break of a descending trend line & rejecting higher prices for 2 weeks we finally saw strong bullish momentum on Friday that broke back above the trend line.
Now we are anticipating one of the two scenarios marked on the chart to play out.
Scenario 1: Price will break above the nearby resistance zone &...
Price has been creating a descending Nature - I will be going long on completion of Bull Flag, first target being the previous high.
If we reject off the High especially with any ascending Nature I can see price potentialy coming to the downside creating a Double Bottom / Descending formation and going back up.
These are my set ups I am waiting for.
In the screencast I show how I assess the probability and enter short.
As usual, this is not a prediction - as I don't do predictions, targets, signals, or confirmations.
I expect price to take me out at my stop-loss and I shall sleep very well tonight! :)) But if price moves in my favoured direction, I shall follow on a more suitable trend time frame to...
I'm showing mainly for the benefit of new traders why I've done what I've done. This trade is on both paper and live accounts.
Note that I'm not saying I'm gonna win. I aim to lose! I'm simply controlling my loss, and allowing the market to lead me wherever it will, in my favoured probabilistic direction.
Trend-following is not for everybody. In fact,...
Awaiting to see what happens here:
- We could either have a break of the current market structure to the upside roughly around the -1.272 fib retracement of the previous leg to the downside (maybe slightly less due to market structure).
- A break below the CTL and a continuation of the bearish momentum to the downside. We should be looking for a fib extension...
The date of the predictions is not relevant as I don't do time analysis
Only if the correction were in holds and a impulse wave failure doesn't occur
And assuming we dont have another mental christmas period
CHFJPY is showing a very very nice opportunity to go short. On a Daily Timeframe price broke the Weekly region and now is testing the same region to continue to the downside. In 4 hr timeframe price is forming a Double Top and we are waiting the final confirmation to enter a trade short. What is the final confirmation??? THE CANDLESTICK...
Looking like a falling wedge pattern leading to support between $1.6 & $1.7, and that's where the buy zone is going to be in this trade.
RSI is showing bullish divergence on the 4h chart, I think it is likely we see another low here before we breakout from the pattern.
Favourable Risk to Reward here
Entry: @ $1.68 - $1.61
Stop-Loss: @ -8%
TP1: @ $1.96,
Price has respected the blue trend line perfectly 3 times and on the 3rd it has made a bullish engulfing candle stick. If you look at the 1hr time frame the price has made a flag and this could be the entry i wanted.