My 03/11/24 post illustrated NVDA may have bottomed out. Today NVDA rallied 7.16% which could be the start of a move to a significant peak. NVDA could be completing an Elliott Impulse wave from its November 2008 bottom. Within an Impulse wave there’s usually a Fibonacci relationship between the first and fifth waves. Primary wave “1” had a growth rate of ...
NVDA bottomed close to Volume Profile – POC and a .618 retracement of its most recent rally. POC the widest part of Volume Profile is usually strong support or resistance. Next rally could at a minimum reach 1,000.
The Semiconductor Index Elliott wave count since January 2022 is similar to the S&P 500. The SOX rally from the October 2022 bottom appears to be a developing Double Zigzag. The presumed Minor WAVE “C” looks like it could continue higher for one or two weeks.
Of the” Magnificent Seven” thee of them are now in bear trends. The “Terrible Three” are Tesla (TSLA). Apple (AAPL), and Alphabet (GOOGL). TSLA made its high in November 2021. AAPL topped in December 2023. GOOGL peaked in January 2024. The big question now is - how long the other four “Magnificent Seven” stocks can keep pushing up the broader U.S. stock...
Apple Inc (AAPL) has broken below price support at 179.25, and the widest part of the Volume Profile called Point of Control (POC). Price tends to move towards or away from POC. The downside break of POC could be very bearish. Note there is minimal support below 179.25. AAPL could quickly move down to its October 2023 bottom. Note RSI still has not reached...
Nvidia (NVDA) is probably the most powerful U.S. stock and could make a significant top weeks after the main U.S. stock indices peak. Elliott wave analysis indicates an intermediate top could soon occur, then a correction before a 5th wave advance. Perhaps near 1,000. Weekly RSI supports this theory, usually stocks and stock indices have at least one RSI...
A break below the 02/02/24 bottom at 179.23 could open the door for a move back down to the 10/26/23 bottom at 165.67. There’s no chart support below 179.23. CCI is now below its 02/02/24 reading and RSI is at it’s 02/02/24 reading. The momentum indicators and air below 179.23 implies a drop could be rapid. AAPL was a major leader in the post October 2023...
Microsoft (MSFT) appears to have completed a textbook Elliott extended five wave pattern. If so, the next bear phase could ultimately take the stock down to the bottom made in October 2022. CCI has a bearish divergence with RSI deep in the overbought zone. This is frequently a signal for a potentially large decline. The first support is in the 310 to 325 area.
On 02/09/66 the DJI made a major top at 1000.00. One month later it was down 9% by October 1966 the DJI fell by more than 26%. Tomorrow is 02/09/24 the 58 – year anniversary of this historic peak. Today the SPX hit 5000.00. It’s possible another major top at round number resistance could start on an important anniversary.
Typically, when the SPX makes a significant top it occurs with a rising VIX. This happened at the SPX early 2022 top. The VIX made a primary bottom more than a month before the SPX ultimate top. When the SPX made its final high on 01/04/22, the VIX made a higher bottom. This is a subtle sign of increased bearish sentiment. The VIX rises when there’s...
Since October 2023 the Nasdaq 100 (NDQ) has been much more bullish than the S&P 500 (SPX). NDQ rallied 25.7% while the SPX rallied 19.5%. On 01/26/24 something different happened, the SPX made a new high unconfirmed by NDQ. Also note the daily RSI for SPX has a significant bearish divergence and is in the over bought zone! A decline in the SPX down to at...
The S&P 500 (SPX) appears to be near completion of an Elliott wave impulse pattern from the 01/17/24 bottom. RSI and MACD have developed bearish divergences. (SPX) could make a peak early in the 01/24/24 trading session.
Tesla recent underperformance to the S&P 500 is similar to what happened at it peak in late July 2023. This relative weakness is probably a very bearish signal for Tesla and could also have bearish implications for the S&P 500. Mark
BTCUSD has retraced a Fibonacci .618 of the November 2021 to November 2022 bear market. Weekly CCI has a double bearish divergence. Weekly RSI has a bearish divergence in the overbought zone. If the high made on 01/11/24 holds, a multi-month decline to at least the November 2022 bottom could be underway.
At the SPX 12/28/23 high both CCI and RSI had bearish divergence after traveling into the overbought zone. Wave “1” is equal in time to wave “5” and both waves are nearly equal in growth rate. Also, sometimes markets can turn plus or minus two trading days from a full/new moon. There was a full moon on 12/27/23. This is a tremendous amount of evidence that...
My 12/19/23 post noted the SPX could make a significate peak in the first 15 – minutes of trading on 12/20/23 with a bullseye top target at 4874. The peak occurred mid – day at 4878. There’s a high probability a decline lasting several days, or a few weeks may have begun on 12/20/23. If the decline continues future posts will examine price and time targets for a...
This is a bear alert! This is a bear alert! Since the 10/27/23 bottom the SPX has been on a relentless rally. There’s a good chance the SPX could make an intermediate top early in the SPX session on 12/20/23. Daily RSI is deep in the overbought zone with a declining CCI – a strong signal of a possible drop lasting perhaps one or two weeks. Intra day Elliott...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average could be nearing the peak of an Elliott Wave - Expanding Flat - top. In this case Primary wave "B" A major top could happen in just a few weeks. If so the next decline could last for several months.