jamiegleave

jamiegleave Updated 

Afternoon traders, Something special happened last week: the Fed funds rate rose to 66bps. Why is this important? Historically, /dx depends on not only the direction of US yields, but also the absolute level. A "high yielder" can be defined as a currency whose central bank offers at least the third highest central bank yield in the G10. By this definition, USD...

jamiegleave Updated 

Unhedged capital flows into the EZ have been attributed to the following factors: - Perception that EZ political risks have subsided, returning market focus back to economic fundamentals - Improving economic fundamental picture and upside surprises in eco indicators have prompted significant asset allocation shift to European equities and thus, expectations of a...

jamiegleave Updated 

Got a bit carried away with the Trump hype in the previous idea and have returned back to reality. 2% yield incoming... #byeinflation #byeusdjpy

jamiegleave Updated 

Pulling rabbits out of hats at 113.190. Stay in your lane, bulls.

jamiegleave Updated 

Temporary flip here .. Sitting at 61.8% retracement of the Nov-Dec 2016 Trump move. Let's see how long we can ride this pig.

jamiegleave Updated 

As you can see, yields are poised to break above the bull flag; a convincing break would target 3% as a minimum. Time to buy some moon boots guys and ditch any $JNUG dreams.

jamiegleave Updated 

Hi guys, In effect, this is an extension of my aussie trade posted pre-Trump (26th October 2016) in which we bagged 500 pips. AUDUSD has seen rapid recovery off the back of both dollar weakness (mainly due to lack of details of the US administration's economic plans) and rapidly rising commodity prices, in particular iron ore (/it has rallied 10% recently,...

jamiegleave Updated 

Good evening traders, Energy traders would have noticed the somewhat eery price action on oil prices recently. I believe that recently losses are attributed to: - Emerging doubts over the degree of compliance with OPEC production cuts as Iraqi exports remain high; - Concerns about the rate of market rebalancing; - Rapid rebound in U.S. shale production following...

jamiegleave Updated 

Afternoon guys, Hope you all enjoyed the Christmas break and are ready for another year of thrashing the markets. NZD/USD is currently looking extremely bearish for the following reasons: - Break of the neckline of the H&S, implying downside movement to 0.66150; - Break of the trend line support from Jan to June lows; - Break of the 200dma. MACD and recent...

jamiegleave Updated 

I suggest that traders short the Norwegian Krone against the USD for the following reasons: /dx has broken out of its ~2yr consolidation pattern amid Trump's fiscal stimulus promises and subsequent repricing of the Fed's hiking cycle in anticipation of higher US growth and inflation. NOK remains highly vulnerable to /cl as >50% of Norway's exports are...

jamiegleave Updated 

Rationale: - Although recent GDP growth figures have exceeded expectations, there are signs that the Chinese economy is becoming more unbalanced; $MS predicts a Chinese slowdown, potentially reducing demand-side pressure for iron ore (and /cl's failure to maintain above 50 will only aid supply-side capacity) - I maintain a bullish stance on $ as I believe that the...

jamiegleave

Traders - do not be fooled, the recent bearish movement of eur/nzd is purely a retracement following the pair's 2015 move - classic bull flag stuff. On daily chart, the pair closed above the falling trendline that has been in force since mid July, signalling further bullish action for the pair. I suggest longing upon retest of falling trendline following...