- Although recent GDP growth figures have exceeded expectations, there are signs that the Chinese economy is becoming more unbalanced; $MS predicts a Chinese slowdown, potentially reducing demand-side pressure for iron ore (and /cl's failure to maintain above 50 will only aid supply-side capacity)
- I maintain a stance on $ as I believe that the hiking trigger will be pulled in December as a) recent data supports a hike 100% in my view and b) Yellen has little choice if she wishes to maintain any degree of credibility within the market.
- Early signs of weakness developing within the Australian labour market. With mining investment staying weak and housing slowing down, two important pillars for employment growth have weakened.
The recent uptrend is a pullback of the multi-year downtrend and recent price action shows that a break above 0.77 ain't happening - sorry bulls.
Recent CPI data has propped her up - use it to sell rallies on this pair.
High R:R - enjoy watching this pair hit the deck.
http://icmarkets.ctrader.com/images/screens/jBygn.png this is my short term analysis, same thoughts different time frames