FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Afternoon guys,

Hope you all enjoyed the Christmas break and are ready for another year of thrashing the markets.

NZD/USD is currently looking extremely bearish for the following reasons:

- Break of the neckline of the H&S , implying downside movement to 0.66150;
- Break of the trend line support from Jan to June lows;
- Break of the 200dma.

MACD and recent price action suggest that a pullback is imminent. I suggest shorting this pair at 0.70047 (. 382 retracement of 14-22nd Dec move) and adding further damage if we see a retest of the trend line support.

This is a technical play at heart, although various fundamental factors including broad US$ strength during 2017 (see related idea), the commodity bloc currencies' position of vulnerability to worsening yield differentials vis a vis the USD and the propensity for loss of ground if the risk environment begins to deteriorate favour n/u shorts.
Comment: Looking constructive :)
Comment: Perfect entry :)
Comment: Struggling at the .382 retracement, volatility trends suggest that a substantial USD move is on the horizon and given recent /dx price action and market positioning (heavily net long USD), I would expect this to be to the downside. I am more inclined to advise that you play it safe and close out at a small profit here and await a test of the trend line as suggested. AUDUSD price action (a fellow antipode w/ a similar fundamental story) has convincingly broken above an important resistance line, signalling further upwards movement. I therefore expect NZDUSD to follow suit in the near term.

Related Ideas

Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Help Center Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing TradingView Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out