Like the other major indices, the Dow is probably in subminuette wave 5. Unlike the other major indices, it appears to be far behind the others, which may cause it to result in a truncation. Once completed, it should begin minor wave X. Of all the major indices, the Russell 2000 appears to be closest to finishing subminuette wave 5, so it may be leading the...
It appears that the Nasdaq 100 is approaching the end of subminuette wave 5, which has taken the form of an impulse. Once completed, it should begin minor wave X. Of all the major indices, the Russell 2000 appears to be closest to finishing subminuette wave 5, so it may be leading the market. Subminuette wave 5 in the Nasdaq 100 also appears pretty close to...
It appears that the Russell 2000 is approaching the end of subminuette wave 5, which has taken the form of an ending diagonal. Once completed, it should begin minor wave X. Of all the major indices, the Russell 2000 appears to be closest to finishing subminuette wave 5, so it may be leading the market. Subminuette wave 5 in the Nasdaq 100 also appears pretty...
It appears that the S&P 500 may have completed five waves up of minuette degree. If not, it is probably in subminuette wave 4 and close to completion. Either way, we have either begun wave X or will very shortly. While it's still too early to say how wave X will develop, the most common wave pattern is a zigzag. After completing three waves down, the market...
It appears that the euro has formed an ending diagonal for wave C of the zigzag. If this interpretation is correct, all of the requirements for minute wave 4 have been satisfied, and we could begin minute wave 5 at any moment if it hasn't already started. Minute wave 5 should take the euro below its July 14 low. The euro, however, could still rise a little...
The S&P 500 has completed intermediate wave 1, which developed as a leading diagonal. We should now be in intermediate wave 2. While it's still too early to say how intermediate wave 2 will develop, it looks like it has formed a very nice zigzag pattern so far. It has, however, only retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which is a relatively small retracement...
The wave count I worked on yesterday appears to be correct based on the direction prices are moving today. However, I can't find a five wave move on any relevant time frame from the barrier triangle I was working on yesterday. As a result, I think that minuette wave 4 is developing a double three rather than a barrier triangle and we still haven't broken out of...
It appears that the euro developed a combination in the form of a double three for minuette wave B inside minute wave 4, which is developing as a zigzag. We should need a small five-wave move up of subminuette degree to complete the zigzag. After the zigzag completes, prices should continue down below the July 14 low.
Crude oil is forming a triangle as primary wave 4. Triangles can have at most only one complex subwave. Four of the five subwaves must be zigzags. It appears that wave B developed as a double zigzag and, thus, occupies the only allowable complex wave. As a result, waves A, C, D, and E must develop as zigzags. Waves A and C have already completed zigzags and we...
I initially thought crude oil was experiencing a wave 4 correction, but oil's decline to 90.56 on July 14 seriously calls that interpretation into question. It appears that oil may have finished a truncated fifth on June 14 and is now entering a primary correction. If this is the case, I believe it will probably be a WXY correction because I can already count an...
Copper appears to have finished a perfect ABC correction that has terminated at precisely the 0.618 Fibonacci level. According to the Elliott wave model, copper should begin another five-wave move up of primary degree that eventually surpasses its March high. There is one reason to be cautious, however. Copper still has bearish seasonality until August 15. If you...
Soybeans are currently in minor wave D of an intermediate wave 4 triangle. Once soybeans break out of the triangle, they will begin intermediate wave 5 down to at least the 1212'4 (0.5 Fibonacci level) area for November soybeans, possibly lower. This is also happening during the summer months when soybean prices typically decrease. If you bought soybeans on...
Corn is currently in minor wave D or E of an intermediate wave 4 triangle. Once corn breaks out of the triangle, it will begin intermediate wave 5 down to at least the 521'0 (0.618 Fibonacci level) area for December corn, possibly lower. This is also happening during the summer months when corn prices typically decrease. If you bought corn on July 19 and sold...
The British pound has been in a downtrend for over a year now. It provided many great shorting opportunities while it lasted, but we are quickly approaching a trend reversal. We have traced out a three-wave decline and hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level. While I can't pinpoint the exact moment the trend reversal will begin, I do believe it is imminent, possibly having...
T-bonds should begin minute wave 3 any day now. T-bonds should experience severe resistance from the trend line that started forming on April 13 and from Ichimoku's leading span B, which is at about the same level as the trend line. Over the past ten years, t-bonds have had bearish seasonality from June 8 until August 23. If you bought and sold t-bonds on these...
Gold and silver typically follow similar patterns, and now is no exception. While I usually prefer to trade gold because of its greater liquidity, I believe silver currently looks more attractive because it has retraced almost twice as much as gold. Its seasonal annualized return at this time is 100% greater, which makes sense with silver's greater retracement. I...
Silver should have completed a five wave move down on Friday; if not, it should complete the down move on Monday or Tuesday. The Elliot wave pattern coincides with one of silver's most bullish seasonal patterns. Over the past 54 years, silver has experienced some of its most significant annual gains between July 18 and September 21. If you bought and sold silver...
So far, bitcoin has been forming a perfect zigzag corrective wave. It is remarkably beautiful. Truly, if I were to ever write a textbook on Elliott wave analysis, I would feel compelled to include a bitcoin chart as one of the defining models of the zigzag corrective pattern in the real world. In order to make the pattern truly 100% textbook, bitcoin must still...