T-Bonds Are Beginning Minute Wave 3 With Bearish Seasonality
T-bonds should begin minute wave 3 any day now. T-bonds should experience severe resistance from the trend line that started forming on April 13 and from Ichimoku's leading span B, which is at about the same level as the trend line.
Over the past ten years, t-bonds have had bearish seasonality from June 8 until August 23. If you bought and sold t-bonds on these dates every year for the past ten years, you would have lost money for 9 out of 10 of those years. Except for minor wave 4 that occurred during this time, it appears that this year has followed a similar pattern. On June 8 this year, t-bonds closed at 136'30. I would say that based on seasonality alone, there is a 90% chance prices will close below 136'30 this year on August 23. When we consider minor wave 5, which appears to have begun on July 6-7, I would say there is an incredibly high probability that prices will close below 131'01 before its completion.
This analysis will be voided if prices rise above 142'06. In this case, it will appear that t-bonds are making a five-wave move up, which has a much more bullish outlook.
Over the past ten years, t-bonds have had bearish seasonality from June 8 until August 23. If you bought and sold t-bonds on these dates every year for the past ten years, you would have lost money for 9 out of 10 of those years. Except for minor wave 4 that occurred during this time, it appears that this year has followed a similar pattern. On June 8 this year, t-bonds closed at 136'30. I would say that based on seasonality alone, there is a 90% chance prices will close below 136'30 this year on August 23. When we consider minor wave 5, which appears to have begun on July 6-7, I would say there is an incredibly high probability that prices will close below 131'01 before its completion.
This analysis will be voided if prices rise above 142'06. In this case, it will appear that t-bonds are making a five-wave move up, which has a much more bullish outlook.