Bitcoin broke out of the descending channel a few weeks ago during the run up in price. A reversal happened at what appears to be a neckline of a potential inverse head and shoulders. I drew the pattern the first week after it hit. Would want to see 18-20k put up a fight (20 w moving average support at the top of the descending channel, which is also at the 2017...
Gold has been trading sideways for the past few years, and I think we finally have the market conditions for it to *shine*. It was very overextended during the run-up in 2020. Once it broke the 20 w moving average it could never sustainably stay above it. Things were looking really bad when it broke through the 100 week moving average and fell below some pretty...
SPX recently broke out of the steep bearish wedge that corresponded to a drop in the volatility index (VIX). The VIX broke through the higher lower trend, which is similar to 2008 and 2016, which were bearish and bullish examples. The difference is that in 2008, a lower low in price was made following the break down, whereas a higher low was made in price in 2016....
Since my longer term outlook is higher inflation than bond yields, I've been looking for stocks that should perform well in an inflationary environment. RIO is a cash rich stock in the mining and processing of minerals (iron ore, copper, gold, etc) that pays an 11% dividend. The charts appear to show a symmetrical triangle that broke out to the upside before...
Just started publishing my charts, but here is my base case for NDX. It has been mostly trading in a log channel shown with black lines since the tail end of the .com bubble deleveraging in 2001. In fact, NDX has been in this log channel since 1986, with the exception of the blow off top move from .com bubble. NDX has broke out of the channel and back-tested the...
BTCUSD broke out to the upside from its bull penant consolidation, that occurred from the 50% correction that started in April. That gives the medium term price target of 100k almost perfectly. BTCUSD has been trading in a channel since June, and managed to hit the top of that channel while it broke out to new ATH. It corrected and touched the 0.382 fib level....
Along with my base case for DXY, US10Y was rejected off of the top trendline of the wedge pattern. Seems like the likely path of least resistance is to head back to test the bottom of the wedge, which corresponds to the 0.618 fib level based on the crash in yields from 2020. Yield target would be 1.3% and, as I predicted in the related idea, to result in a rise of...
The dollar index has traded mostly sideways with a counter trend move to the upside hitting the 0.382 fib retracement. My base case is that we may be a continued push to the 0.618 fib level, which is also the inverse head and shoulders price target. This seems to coincide with the supply chain problems and not getting goods into the ports. With less flow of goods...
