Just started publishing my charts, but here is my base case for NDX. It has been mostly trading in a log channel shown with black lines since the tail end of the .com bubble deleveraging in 2001. In fact, NDX has been in this log channel since 1986, with the exception of the blow off top move from .com bubble. NDX has broke out of the channel and back-tested the top of it on Oct. 4th. This seems to me like the start of a blow off top phase for tech. Last time the blow off top phase lasted for about 1.5 years with about a 350% gain but with an 80+% drop that followed. We'll see how overextended this one gets. Right now, it is continuing to trade in an ascending triangle pattern that I predict will breakout to the upside during this blow off top move. With the bear trap that corresponded to falling out of the triangle and then exploding back into it, I'd expect the price to go to the top of the triangle and hit somewhere around the 1.618 fib level drawn from the previous short term correction (price level ~16500).
Comment:
1.618 fib level reached. Looks like a healthy retracement is happening. If we end up breaking out of this wedge to the upside, it would give further evidence of the blow off top move that I'm predicting.