Nobody was prepared the time when the 2020 Black Swan came. But the location of the Swan is very interesting: First, SPX: Not very interesting of a spot... In the middle of nowhere really. Now, DJI/M2SL There has been an impenetrable ceiling for more than 10 years. We almost hit it a third time since 2008, and then the crash came. Long-term Inflation...
A "back to the basics" analysis. Let's leave behind the stock markets and look at the slow and deep fundamentals of the worldwide economy. Today I will attempt to make a simple analysis using GDP. This is the net profit of one country. The miracle of China caught the West in the sleep. It outperformed the largest economy of the world. And by incredible...
The Big One. The big question. Buy or sell? A question is easy. An answer can be hard. Most of us here trade because we believe we have a grasp on the answers. And we have several methods on our toolkit to reach a conclusion. One of these methods is belief . That's what we gamble upon. Belief on indices, stocks, ETFs, currencies is what makes us buy them and...
Just when I thought SPX was bearish... ...the bulls pull me back in. Not many of us in here made millions from trading. One of the reasons is that the markets are weird. Just when we be lie ve that the bottom is in, another bottom appears. Just when we be lie ve that more down is coming, no more down comes. When you open TradingView, and look at the prices,...
Trading is a game of poker. - Capitalism is a dirty business. - Like war? - Not exactly. It has important rules one must follow. A game about money is a cold blooded game. One player must deceive the other to win, the so called bluff. Fear is a weapon of war. The house always wins. ... and many more which I don't know. The best bull traps are...
The markets simply refuse to give up. The birds are speaking to them, but nobody listens. Gold, still living inside a massive bearish wedge pattern, is almost ready to print a death cross. The 1M, 2M and 3M timeframes print a similar picture. The 2M chart is beginning to give in. Volatility between MAs is keeping these still glued together, unable to figure...
Yesterday I threw away all the indicators I have been using. A lot of dirt has cluttered my screen for too long. I have also made many custom ones, I threw them out too. But I kept just one, a moving average. Every* indicator refers to price after all. In the end, price discounts everything. No price indicator can tell us something price doesn't tell. The...
A simple analysis is a good analysis. In this short and simple idea, I will do some rudimentary trend analysis in SPX. Most importantly, the behavior the famous index had, when it followed and violated long-term trends. For each chart, I will take a step back in time and attempt to get into the mind of the traders that came before us. Trends will be defined from...
The changes we expect need time to take shape. Some of them might come sooner rather than later. Yield rates are into a clear breakout. Big moves need more time to take shape than small ones. For illustration purposes a sine wave can be plotted to showcase the major cycles of the balance-of-power. The cycle above lasts 32 years. If we expect a major move from...
The point of TradingView (and being a human/trader in general) is to learn from your mistakes. I did make some mistakes. Perhaps this idea by itself is another mistake. But I cannot do any different. I must speak out about what I see. For the past year I tried to understand the pressures that are pushing prices higher, equities lower. It is important in analysis...
The Bear Extermination mission is now complete. There are no bears alive to tell the story. Last winter will be written in the history books. But remember, history is written by the winners. After all the Bears got trapped, we are left with a market full of neutrals and bulls. The most extremist of bears are gone. Negligible now the effect of the baby...
Price action discounts everything. The most important included. It discounts prejudgement. Price discounts everything every time... ...except when we don't want to allow it to change our hypotheses. High yield rates are synonymous with recession. We are convinced that high yield rates is the thing the majority hates. From this chart above, we conclude that this...
This year has been very boring... Lot's of horizontal movement, not many interesting news. Well, except of course that "a couple" of banks went bust. But if I didn't tell you that, you couldn't tell where in this chart this occurred... SPX, and the market in general, has been too stubborn despite the importance of the events occurring. On the one hand, this...
One cannot predict the future, but if they are wise, they can try and learn from the past. We are witnessing a major shift, from decades of QE to possible decades of QT. These environments are just parts of the eternal cycle. Just like summer comes and goes, so do the balances of the economy. Now we might be witnessing a super-cycle. Currency cost is at a 5000...
I am not lying. I am completely disproving my latest idea, on how to short SPX. That idea went on Editors' Picks. And I am now killing it. I am not kidding, April Fools is for fools. I don't consider me or you a fool. So I am being serious. Chart analysis is not always straightforward. Pinpointing tops and bottoms is the ultimate bet for a trader. As most of...
Ordinarily, I wouldn't contemplate them... but these *are* extraordinary times. - G-Man A bank just went broke, oops! It was certainly something we expected. With money literally burning, these kinds of events are expected. So what might be ahead of us? The rate-hike schedule went relatively smooth sailing until now. But just last week something changed... When...
Europe and especially Germany (the biggest power in Europe) have suffered this year due to the energy crisis. There is more background though... The US has performed well until now. This period of US dominance is failing. The chart above is respecting a long-term trend. Now, price is at the bottom with stochastics primed for continuation of the uptrend for...
Oh boy, many of them problems... Sometimes there are cycles, some cycles are shorter than others. In chart analysis, we are familiar when we analyze trends. Either short term or long term. The economy does not function only in trends. There are cycles. The most common / important of cycles is the yearly one. Unfortunately, cyclic patterns may prove tricky to...