ZaphodBeebz

ZaphodBeebz

How long do we stay below 5400 - SP500? is the real question. Are we going to see a sideways range through the fall? Do we get a rip roaring 10-15% correction and "L" or even better "V" recovery? The path does not matter as much but here is my commentary anyway. I think that we see a temporary high in early April as we power through the rest of Q1 earnings...

ZaphodBeebz

I missed some profits on my last trade on Ford but that is why we don't go all in every trade. I trimmed a little more after my last post and now I am glad I did. Ford had a sharp selloff but looks like it found some support yesterday. I am looking for a bounce back to 13. Adding here but saving some powder in case we do get more weakness in first half of 2023....

ZaphodBeebz

This Megaphone pattern is ready to break. Calls over 300 Puts under 280

ZaphodBeebz

I am trimming Ford here. It has had a nice run up from recent lows - 20%! Running into the downward sloping trendline and a 1.6 extension from beginning of Oct bounce I will be looking to trade around 12.50 and start accumulating below 11.50.

ZaphodBeebz

Fundamentals: Slowing growth from Google and Microsoft continued our confirmation of a slowing macro environment. Microsoft reporting slowing growth in cloud revenue. Google even said their strongest ad flow of "search" saw a decline in revenue. Ad spend being the canary in the coal mine indicates the market is ready to continue it's collapse. META continues to...

ZaphodBeebz

Is 4% yield the end for the 10 year? The fed is talking about increasing the base rate further so I doubt it is the bottom but we do see a similar move here versus the begging of the sell off. Moving about .23% on the yield today versus the beginning of the sell off does leave one to wonder. Are we close to the bottom? Does this mean that equities have the green...

ZaphodBeebz

CME_MINI:ES1! Hello all! Just thought I would share my work here today for all those EW analysis junkies to critique. Along with some commentary on current market/geopolitical/economic conditions and where I think we are headed. With recession on the horizon like pink clouds in the morning for a sailor, we have to get our work (profits) in and get out of the...

ZaphodBeebz Updated 

White = option 1 bull/bear Blue = option 2 bull/bear Not shown: option 3 we sit in a correction pattern between 462 - 449 sorry I marked up one on futures

ZaphodBeebz Updated 

The weekly chart bars show that my previous analysis is still in play. The past week plus kind of threw me as we blew through the bottom of my wave 1. I am not sure if the move (2/22 -3/14-now) is a 4 or a B but either way the next couple of weeks are going to be overall red. I will post a follow up analysis of what I think these two weeks will look like. I...

ZaphodBeebz Updated 

Looks like wave 4 correction is over. If this is the case we will not close over the lows of late 2021 where I put a 1. The actual low is not always the close as there is a b or wave 2 correction that sometimes extends above/below the last wave. (Big money taking out stop losses) So somewhere around 453 is my estimate from fib extension. This would confirm we...

ZaphodBeebz

Hello all! Just posting this for education purposes, maybe for myself as well. Post comments about your disagreements or thoughts. Looks like a full impulse wave, happened on 3-11, I have not plugged this into the overall Elliott Wave trend so I can not point you in one way or the other. I was working on this for a friend and thought I would post here too.

ZaphodBeebz Updated 

Hello! Where is Tesla's stock price headed?? I apologize for the crowdedness of the chart but "bear" with me... or bull with me. After a bounce off the lower trend line and a follow up 10%+ day we saw TSLA take a breather, with the overall market for most of the day. As the indices pushed higher into the close TSLA started to take off then met some resistance...

ZaphodBeebz Updated 

Oil going to test recent highs after bearish divergence. Travel picking up after covid restrictions relax. Not professional. Comment your ideas please.

05:25

ZaphodBeebz

The most similar pattern I see suggests a further correction but as they say markets don't repeat, they rhyme. Do your own research. This is for fun, conversations, and journaling. Thumbs up. Let me know your thoughts. Sorry about the lag, using an old laptop today. Happy Trading.

ZaphodBeebz

Similar action from the tops of tech bubble and Great Recession. After a final run to the top, that took 3-5 months, we saw a large bear market. We also saw a poor earnings season that resulted in SP p/e levels double-triple. Are earnings going to disappoint? Are the current geopolitical situations going to escalate? Will inflation explode?

ZaphodBeebz

Hello, this is what I am looking at. Just a caution to those who are ready to pounce on the dip. ABCDE on D with two month cypher. .282 retrace is what I have seen in the past on ABCDE then .5 and .618 (456.5,460.38). Bounced off 200 MA so maybe larger bounce but right now there is a lot of fear in the market so I would just hedge with UVXY calls or SL (maybe at...

ZaphodBeebz

If so, measuring to bottom of cup would put us around 2800 target. Trade smart do your research. 🦧 here. GLHF

ZaphodBeebz Updated 

Check it out, let me know what you think. SNDL look like a double bottom with a couple and handle formation under way. What is the short % on this right now?