DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Price of SOXS since inception. Price in 2012 is not a typo. Adjusted for reverse splits, shares declined from $11.1m to $3. Eleven million, one-hundred thousand dollars became three dollars in twelve years. Bear etf funds do not contain equities. They consist entirely of futures contracts, which suffer time decay and expire. This is the effect of time decay...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

A correction is coming soon. Maybe started this week. How low will it go? Nobody knows. So many Bearish Posts. Permabears predicting cataclysm. The End is Near! Doomsayers who repeatedly forecast massive crashes will eventually be right, once every 15-20 years. Almost always these guys are just plain wrong. Markets exist to print money. Money prints when...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Rally was short and sweet. Got 0.50. Fibo. Meta cracked it. Was fading all day already after the morning pump; just three up days. C legs typically extend farther and give a 1.62 extension, capitulation and panic prevail. May will be Bearish, at least to start, imo. Need to watch this correction carefully to gauge whether it takes ABC form or a more sinister...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Buildup prior to the invasion was a steady week of lower prices in January, until 17 Jan 1991 when coalition forces took control of skies over Baghdad and destroyed Iraqi air and ground forces. Overlay is Jan 1991. 17 Jan was the night invasion. 18 Jan the market took a moon shot. Once it became apparent that our guys were winning, bulls took over and the rise...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Probably see 5K Monday but it won't last long. In the PRZ now. Bullish enthusiasm from Friday's madness likely to persist through Monday morning. Top could be in by noon Monday, if it's not already. Notice RSI diverging... every trip to the PRZ weakens RSI, fewer and fewer issues pushing higher... won't be long now. Astonishing how short memory is, seems to...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Moving sharply down from upper Bolly band. Expect correction to bottom of Bollinger bands. Further megacap ERs to disappoint. Meta, Apple Thursday, many others. Fed says no rate cuts, for some time. Bars pattern from last September FOMC disappointment. History never repeats exactly, but it often rhymes. 4930 was a top. Short every rally! This ain't no place...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Papa Powell might be the catalyst for final blowoff top. Massive surge to 5K is within striking distance. Breakout above B-bands is unusual and virtually always rejected. Watch for it. From Weds PM 31st until Friday noon we could well see ATH. So many bears now, "It just can't get any higher!" But it can. Beware.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Seen this before. SPX climbs relentlessly, driven by the Magnificent Seven. Russell small caps, America's real stock market, do not participate above a resistance price, ~2K index price. Twice rejected there, first rally went to ~2400, this time it's a lot less. IMO this monster rally back to SPX ATH is just another bear market zig-zag, and the worst may be yet...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Do not be surprised if there is yet ANOTHER surprise in this nutty stampede. Everyone is bearish, everyone says; "it has to go down now, right?!" That's when it goes more up. Be real careful about backing up the truck for a full putload. Gonna see some choppy days to be sure, but these damned rallies have a weird life of their own. Not taking a position, not...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Always crystal clear in the retrospectometer. NQ making new ATH daily while the small caps and broader market swoon. Fewer and fewer issues carry the index to nosebleed heights, see how RSI weakens at each new high... this is the end of the run. May not lead to a crash scenario, but lower prices and persistent weakness are likely over the near to mid term...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Target 4800 nearly there in AH trade. Looking back, a long EW for 1k pips from 3800 is apparent. Summer rally was 3rd wave, this is the 5th. On this chart, target the Dark Side of the Moon. Wish you were here! All bets off after that. Close your longs soon folks. Then get out your Floyd vinyls and do the timewarp again. Triple Witching Friday, RSI madly...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Stand in front of the train if it suits you. Going ATH, irrational meltup. Logic and reason are irrelevant. Get ready for a massive blowoff top. Going to da moon!! So many posting; 'Get short!' 'I'm short!' 'Big Dump Coming!' It is not dumping, it is pumping. If you stand in front of Santa's Polar Express you WILL get run over. Merry Christmas to all, and to...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Buying SPXL TQQQ and a few cawls. It's a selling climax. OFC it can still sell more. GLTA

DaddySawbucks

Back in the middle again. Looks like the squeeze could run a little further. PB to the center tine would give an inverted Right Shoulder. Look for it.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

This structure appears before massive selloffs. Strong resist at 4385. Today's (10/16) gap & go rally may well be a last gasp for bulls. If we don't get a breakout 10/17 we gonna see a big dump into EOM and FOMC. This is a really risky time to be in here. Good luck if you try to play. I'll be short.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

In 2018 Congress failed to pass a budget and the US Gov't was shutdown. A monster dump ensued. Now comes Congress unable even to elect a Speaker. incompetence abounds. Expect the worst. Trend is Down. Trend continues until the End at the Bend.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Price stopped fall at the 0.618 retracement ~4321 SPX and held for an intraday double bottom ~4310. Holds above the previous Friday's finish after a mad V rally. Stonks remain in a downtrend but this countertrend move may be only halfway up the flagpole. C wave ought to carry index to the upper trendline of falling channel, another 100 pips above. Confirm...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says it all. Bear trap. If this is impulsive move lower all the past week's down is just the first leg lower. A retracement to the 0.50 is most common. Shorts beware.