S&P 500 prime for a correction, BUT are we done with the run?
How long do we stay below 5400 - SP500? is the real question. Are we going to see a sideways range through the fall? Do we get a rip roaring 10-15% correction and "L" or even better "V" recovery? The path does not matter as much but here is my commentary anyway.
I think that we see a temporary high in early April as we power through the rest of Q1 earnings then take a breath.12% correction? -> 480 looks like a good support? over a couple months? May usually sucks, do we see a bottom in May with the "sell in May and go away" crowd? But I cant imagine much of a stay there with a gap down 5% bull run or a 3% turn around Tuesday. Not to mention the June cut expectations that will get early mover money flowing.
I think the news goes with the fed cuts rates minus some black swan. You can almost mark our cycles to the fed rate decisions over the past 3-4 years. I could see a build up into June with expectations of rate cuts.
Inflation remains in a downward trend. Manufacturing has been contracting. The big R word won't go away! Tax returns may stem a few more higher inflation readings that scare the market. Good correction fodder. But also good rate cut fodder.
My Elliott wave charting (my own work) tells me that we could be near the top of wave 3 with a wave 5 to go. (Mind you I believe this is part of large wave 3. LETS GO 2025. Years of the bull. ROARING 20s.)
Billions of dollars of stimulus sloshing around. Intel microchip plant in IN. Ford Blue Oval in TN Toyota in NC.
Look at United Rentals..
Looking at their revenue a 40% increase since pre stimulus. 300 % increase in market cap in the same time frame. Maybe you want to say "but Zaphod... inflation". Even if you say the price has doubled for market value rentals, that is still 150% increase in expectations. Growth is expected with a 20 PE.
That is a massive amount of building. Building infrastructure to support technology advances, our massive vehicle trash pile, the AI revolution, war machines, airplanes etc... Billions of dollars, then billions more dumped into these projects.
Small caps and medium cap: Russell 2k, Even split SP500: The catch up trade could certainly drive us higher into 2025. All the billions that people just cashed out of Apple and Tesla(watch out below!), just looking for a new home. Let the rate cuts come and watch the second half of this year explode. 5800?
Final note for today: exponential growth is going to continue until the collapse of society. 2% inflation charted is still exponential. Stay in the market, be a bull, you win more. You will hate the wild rides down unless you are patient and GREEDY when the fear is real.
I am obviously making all this up to fan my biases so do your own speculating. Comment the thoughts below.
I think that we see a temporary high in early April as we power through the rest of Q1 earnings then take a breath.12% correction? -> 480 looks like a good support? over a couple months? May usually sucks, do we see a bottom in May with the "sell in May and go away" crowd? But I cant imagine much of a stay there with a gap down 5% bull run or a 3% turn around Tuesday. Not to mention the June cut expectations that will get early mover money flowing.
I think the news goes with the fed cuts rates minus some black swan. You can almost mark our cycles to the fed rate decisions over the past 3-4 years. I could see a build up into June with expectations of rate cuts.
Inflation remains in a downward trend. Manufacturing has been contracting. The big R word won't go away! Tax returns may stem a few more higher inflation readings that scare the market. Good correction fodder. But also good rate cut fodder.
My Elliott wave charting (my own work) tells me that we could be near the top of wave 3 with a wave 5 to go. (Mind you I believe this is part of large wave 3. LETS GO 2025. Years of the bull. ROARING 20s.)
Billions of dollars of stimulus sloshing around. Intel microchip plant in IN. Ford Blue Oval in TN Toyota in NC.
Look at United Rentals..
Looking at their revenue a 40% increase since pre stimulus. 300 % increase in market cap in the same time frame. Maybe you want to say "but Zaphod... inflation". Even if you say the price has doubled for market value rentals, that is still 150% increase in expectations. Growth is expected with a 20 PE.
That is a massive amount of building. Building infrastructure to support technology advances, our massive vehicle trash pile, the AI revolution, war machines, airplanes etc... Billions of dollars, then billions more dumped into these projects.
Small caps and medium cap: Russell 2k, Even split SP500: The catch up trade could certainly drive us higher into 2025. All the billions that people just cashed out of Apple and Tesla(watch out below!), just looking for a new home. Let the rate cuts come and watch the second half of this year explode. 5800?
Final note for today: exponential growth is going to continue until the collapse of society. 2% inflation charted is still exponential. Stay in the market, be a bull, you win more. You will hate the wild rides down unless you are patient and GREEDY when the fear is real.
I am obviously making all this up to fan my biases so do your own speculating. Comment the thoughts below.