The_Arena_Trader

The_Arena_Trader Updated 

The EuroDollar futures market is pricing in rate hikes as seen by the upward slope on the left, but the peak of the curve (contracts which expire in June and September of 2023) suggests that investors believe rates will reach their high and then go down after that and keep going down well into the foreseeable future. This is an ominous sign that the Federal...

The_Arena_Trader Updated 

The 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions...

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It will be interesting to see if Bitcoin makes a decisive move in either direction during a weekend of war talks. Will it hedge or flop?

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Bitcoin likes to bounce at the 50 SMA. If we break below, bad things can happen.

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100 day volume moving average is at a low level that is associated with previous panic-selling events marked by vertical lines. If buyers don't show up soon, more investors will start to take profits and allocate capital to markets which are actually moving. I can't make a bullish short-term case for BTC and I think another big leg down is coming. If the same...

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One way to look at candles is that they represent the buying and selling habits of all market participants. The buying habits in the zig zag patterns look like bullish and bearish versions of the same pattern. Maybe it's the same buyer who, at a loss, is unloading the same position. Who knows... The first time this happened (circle 1) price made a new high but...

The_Arena_Trader Updated 

The same daily pattern has shown up for a third time since the COVID recovery began. It's a low volatility day (small candle), followed by a small gap down into a volatile and choppy period for four days, then a reversal into a new secular bull run. It looks like a planet and a moon, hence the stupid name.

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Last time price got close to the gap zone, it fell away quickly. This time, price can't be pushed away. If we chew up all the sell orders before running out of bullish momentum we should break right through the gap zone. The energy sector has been strong and should help pull it up. See the strong correlation to oil prices at the bottom of the chart.

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NQ just completed a head and shoulders. That can mean anything, but it sure makes things interesting. RTY has clearly taken the lead in relative strength since the markets bottomed in march. More money is going to a larger group of stocks in RTY, and it looks like the tech bubble is paying for it. Tech bubble:

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A ratio chart divides the value of the Nasdaq 100 by the value of (S&P 500+Dow 30+Russell 2000). The large spike in the blue line to the left illustrates how the NQ became so overvalued in relation to the S&P, the Dow, and the Russell. If the ratio pulls back, I would say it may find its balance around the lower red line, after retracing the recent parabolic...

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Since 3/23/20 when all three bottomed out, the SPX (green) has outperformed the Europe, Australia, Asia, and Far East ETF (blue, ticker symbol EFA), but both are lagging behind the Emerging Markets ETF (orange, ticker symbol EEM). The SPX has been leading most of the way, but last month the Emerging Markets became #1. Investors have banked on strong recovery...

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I can make the case that it's over, and I can make a case that the party is just getting started. This chart looks like it's only 7pm and we're on a beer run. Party on...

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Two global economic crises so close together in world history, what are the odds? In 2008, the USA stock market bottomed out and began it's recovery just as the EURAUD pair hit a top and sold off. This correlation to the SPX, from a global market view, is interesting because there is such a great shift from negative 80 to positive 80 in a 4 year span after the...

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Long term Bitcoin trend

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Let's see what happens

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The correlation coefficient between gold futures and Bitcoin started out negative for a few years, but after Feb '14 they began to move together. BTC and gold have now been in a five year cycle where the correlation will jump to +72, then drop to a higher low, then up to +72 again, over and over. It seems reasonable that the correlation could soon become stronger...

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Both are daily charts of Apple. On the left, a cup and handle formation has recently resolved within the larger trading range. First there was a test of upper resistance (I call it a kiss hello, probably not the first to call it that), then a small pullback (the handle), then a breakout. Old resistance became new support, and when price came back, it said thanks a...

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We could see a bounce from the low end of the range or we could see a break to the downside which could offer lower timeframe shorts.