In my last post on Silver I wrote that caution was required. Now we are printing a bullish engulfing for the week - the week isn't over, but if this holds, it portends further upside. The broadening formation over the last few weeks is bullish. The weekly Stoch/RSI is in overbought territory, so perhaps some further grinding might be required to create some...
We are now in the take-profit zone I drew in my last Gold post. This is BIG resistance and a break up from this level would be huge. It would break a multi-year consolidation. So what do we do now? A few days of consolidation would be perfect here. Then we can trade the breakout. If you would like to buy here, bare in mind that this is resistance, and you will...
In trading, it is tempting to tell an audience to do something, just as it is tempting to do something yourself. But in trading, doing nothing is never doing nothing. In fact, 90% of trading is patiently waiting. Therefore, I am doing nothing. And in doing nothing, I preserve my capital, my sanity, and leave chart-chasing to the plebs. We are in a DANGEROUS...
Silver broke out above out trendline, but has now been sharply rejected. This is somewhat typical of Silver. However, we can see bear div on the 4 hour, so this has me cautious for now.
THIS, my friends, is a parabola. It is a glorious sight, but parabolas never last forever. On the chart I've marked levels in red, every 1000 points up to 30k: 25k,26k,27k,28k,29k,30k... I'm not such idiot to call THE top on the market. I'm simply saying my understanding of technical patterns leads me to safely conclude that this move will shift and a new...
Silver will be an interesting one to watch this week. We are at imminent resistance for a possible breakout. Price this evening (Sunday GMT) has tentively broken out right now, in fact. But this means nothing until a solid breakout or convincing test of support. Stoch/RSI is bullish. Chart patterns are bullish. However, we have a web of monthly resistance...
Short BTCUSD update - Bear div on the 4 hour, warning a touch of support in imminent. There is weak support at a lower up trendline, currently at around 13500 area. Below there, 11k comes into play. The last bounce on the 8th was a long entry, but price did not get very far. What can't go up must go down.
Here is the monthly chart of the DXY, going back to 2003. Look at how beautifully the Dollar obeys the parallel lines. There is the dominant downtrend (white), and the secondary uptrend (green). The chart is obeying the logic of both lines. Which one will prevail in 2018? Price broke out of a wedge in 2014 and rallied hard, peaking at the end of 2016, and...
The Euro as fallen back from resistance at the significant 1.21 area. A three day correction is normal. We should expect tomorrow to be green, given that we are close to support. A bounce at this zone would look great for continuation. I'm long and bullish the Euro until 1.25. I break below 1.18 would invalidate my bullish thesis, and would put EURUSD in neutral.
This is the 4 hour chart of Bitcoin, Bitfinex. The bearish divergence at the recent lower high gave way to a fast drop, which has bounced where it needed to bounce. We are currently tentatively trading up. We now have a new wedge. Typically, I lose money in these environments. I like clean, easy trades. I do not enjoy scalping within a range. Yet, this is all...
This is the daily chart of Gold. The impressive rally has stalled at the median line of a larger multi-month fork (not entirely visible here). We've made several tests of this line before, and the chart seems to respect this angle. Therefore, some test of support should be expected. I'm more cautious than usual, given that we're losing momentum on the Stoch/RSI,...
Just a quick note with Silver, monthly chart. As with Gold, we have the same rounded bottom formation. We also have a break of a longterm down trendline, which is now acting as support. We should at least expect a test of the 18-19 area. However, 19 presents potent resistance. Breaking and closing above 19 on a monthly basis could shift the whole structure, and...
It is a cryptocurrency? No, its a weekly chart of the Dow Jones. Parabolas do happen in other markets too. Yet, I come into 2018 with a sense of caution. I'm flat, so I can either buy, sell or do nothing. The thought of buying the Dow when it is so far from the 200 MA is gambling. To sell here would also be gambling. It may fall, or it may just keep going. So,...
An epic bull run should rightfully be followed by an epic bullish consolidation. This is what I believe will form in Bitcoin in January. The thought of making a fast move from here seems least likely. Not enough longs have been cleared, and the market lacks triggers to spark a panic. A more likely scenario would be a bullish wedge formation. These formations...
This is the monthly chart of Gold. Gold finished 2017 with a promising bullish tone. Gold had the opportunity to test support at the trendline formed from the 2015 low. It did not do this. Instead, it broke support at a steeper trendline, and reversed sharply in December. This implies that it was a false breakout to the downside (yellow circle), which has...
Here is the monthly chart of the EURUSD. Price was contained between 2014 and 2016. At the beginning of 2017 we made a false break to the downside. This created a fast move to the upside. Price broke out of the consolidation range, and retested it in October and November. We have since rallied in December, and finish 2017 with a bullish tone. None of this is...
In my last post on Bitcoin, I was constructive as long as price remained above $9000. We've since climbed, in a chaotic and choppy structure. This market action can sometimes suggest that air-pockets are forming and the market is awash with weak hands - a significant high may be close - perhaps in price, perhaps in time. For now, we have a clear upwards wedge. In...
My position is unchanged since my last Gold post - short, and waiting to add. Friday's spike was sharply rejected, and we are now in a tight range at the lower end of the wedge built over the last month. This price action, and the fact that Gold shorts are at multi-minth lows, implies that if support at the 1250-70 area breaks, the decline could be quite spectacular.