Yet, I come into 2018 with a sense of caution. I'm flat, so I can either buy, sell or do nothing. The thought of buying the Dow when it is so far from the 200 MA is gambling. To sell here would also be gambling. It may fall, or it may just keep going. So, my option for now is to wait.
The Dow sums up my feelings going into 2018. 2017 was a gift. If you bought the Dow and Bitcoin on January 1st 2017, you could have spent the whole year on a desert island, and then bought the island for cash by December. 2018 does not feel as though it will be so easy. To survive 2018, traders will need to pick their entries very intently, whilst remaining flexible. In the Dow, I'll be looking to buy value. That means a buying the breakout of a healthy consolidation, or getting ready to buy on a sharp drop below the 200 MA.
With all this said, we have finished 2017 in a strongly position. I'm not calling a top at all. Yet, all the news triggers for the Dow are past, and the dollar looks as though it will fall. Should the Dollar fall, capital may flow out of the US for the moment. This will divert foreign investment, causing US markets to lag. This is my fundamental story for a short-term consolidation case for the Dow. WIth that said, I repeat what I wrote earlier - flexibility is the essence in 2018.
For now, there are better opportunities to for capital. A great trading opportunity is coming in the Dow, but it is not here.