The thought of making a fast move from here seems least likely. Not enough longs have been cleared, and the market lacks triggers to spark a panic.
A more likely scenario would be a formation. These formations often leave shorts expecting more downside, and longs getting frustrated before getting close to the bottom. The two scenarios are in blue and white.
Logically, we could flash crash to 7400 and still not violate the tendline (purple). Yet, the distance from the 200 MA still suggests we need to fall in the near term. A break and solid close above 16k would negate this scenario. Note we can still make a lower high around 16k, but only a solid close above there would relieve momentum.
The area I'm looking to buy is somewhere in the 8k range. I'm currently short.