Following on from the bullish signal in the EURJPY, a few days ago we had a GBPJPY long signal setup. Still waiting for a trigger and also due to the Central Banks this week, I wanted to hold off from publishing it. We have now had the Fed, BoE and ECB, so feel better that this is still pending to go long.
Here is what the fundamentals are following the ECB rate decision today, words from ©Lloyds Bank European Central Bank (Dec): We're not pivoting The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates today by 50bps, in line with expectations. It follows 75bp hikes in the last two meetings in September and October, and a 50bp rise in July. There was broad...
I am personally short the EURUSD at the start of the London session. If you are looking for a Bullish scenario then maybe follow Credit Suisse who say Support is seen at 1.0510 initially, with the low from Friday and 13-day exponential average at 1.0428/1.0397 ideally holding on a closing basis to keep the immediate risk higher. A close lower can see a deeper...
If the retail trading pattern plays out, price action will break out of this descending channel. The only way I see this accelerating is if we get a continued decline in the US dollar. Nothing else has changed geopolitically or economically. Monetarists still believe that increased rate hikes will bring down the economy, yet the Atlanta Fed's own GDPNow model is...
The yen’s up by nearly 8% against a correcting dollar, and by more than 10% against all the Latam currencies which have been the best FX performers this year. Back in 1998, USD/JPY was halfway through a correction that took it almost back to 100, after rallying from just above 100 to just below 1 150 in1996/1997, and then falling back in 1998/1999. A cynic might...
The CAD is bucking the trend as I have two Aussie trades which show the AUD strengthening. Whereas this trade idea is suggesting the CAD goes lower. Is oil on the way down too? Nothing to do until we get triggered.
New analysts claim that the S&P 500 provides a better picture of the markets compared to the Dow. Although the S&P 500 obviously has a larger catalog, the Dow is a direct reflection of international capital flows. Look toward the Dow to see where big money is moving. The S&P 500 is domestic-oriented, and fund managers and institutions tend to focus on this index....
Looking for the GBPAUD to break the recent intraday high and then move into the next bullish trading range. EURUSD , GBPUSD etc. have pushed higher during the London open. With the return of traders from the Thanksgiving holiday period I am hoping for a bigger move later on today.
© RBC Euro area economics: Previewing next week’s key euro area inflation release The November euro area ‘flash’ HICP estimate is published on Wednesday, with country-level data for Germany and Spain released on Tuesday, and data for France and Italy in advance on Wednesday morning. Next week’s euro area HICP release is likely to be particularly significant,...
USD/JPY: curve inversion taking over? While the FOMC Minutes showed that a substantial majority of FOMC members thought it would likely soon be appropriate to reduce the pace of rate hikes, they also pointed to various members believing the terminal rate was somewhat higher than previously expected. This rhetoric echoed that of Chair Jerome Powell in...
German PMI figures outperformed expectations, reaching 46.7, strengthening MoM by a value of 1.6 indexed. Whilst this is still firmly in contractionary territory for the German economy and the number of new orders remains heavily depressed, It was still a kernel of good news for Germany and the wider Eurozone. By the same token, Eurozone manufacturing PMI figures...
From HSBC this morning: The UK PMIs were both unchanged from their October levels in November, with manufacturing at 46.2 (consensus: 45.8), and services at 48.8 (consensus: 48.0). This marked the fourth consecutive month in which the composite PMI (48.3) was below 50, indicating a contraction in private sector activity, with the surveyors reporting that...
Looking for Oil to keep pushing lower but willing to wait for a bounce off the median line first. The talk is for a recession, the US Treasuries are being bought, and the USDJPY has come off its highs. Just need a breakout of the recent lows and some follow-through. The markets have been very range-bound recently so lots of false breakouts, so be aware of the...
Private foreigners have purchased just over half a trillion - yes, Trillion - LT USTs in the past six months (sorry, no #brettonwoods3) Why such huge demand for safe, liquid US$ instruments? Not a whole lot of trust for the Fed's toolkit and use. © Jeff Snider What is the reaction to buying UST's? The yields come lower. Interest rates come lower. What does the...
from Caxton Daily Market View GBP- High UK CPI Data Causes GBP Rally Figures for UK YoY CPI released early this morning showed inflation increasing at a higher rate than the 10.7% markets had expected. In the aftermath of the news GBP snapped a four day rally against USD, likely as the market begins to cool after last weeks extended bull run. The figures put...
USDJPY is the only pending order I have at the London Open today. The consolidation is growing and the energy will be building for a breakout soon enough. The Daily trend has been lower of late and the higher time frame has a Bear Flag pattern that is growing the longer the consolidation occurs, with a target for TP1 @ 135.86 Currency pairs have been reversing...
we may get a break higher, but for me, this is a short-only trade. The USDJPY is looking like it wants to break higher, which is why I think the GBPJPY is pushing within this triangle, to the upside. But I don't want to get trapped long, if they reverse the pound.
As per the EURAUD trade idea, this is a Daily trend following strategy that has mechanical, Entry, Stop, and Profit Targets across two positions. This idea has been pending for a few days whilst the bearish momentum builds up