Always looking for a pattern, mainly to define risk and to anticipate a Take Profit Target. If you got stuck in a short due to a breakout and then we see a deep retrace. We could be looking for the classic AB=CD pattern. I always trade a RRR of 1:2 , so this AB=CD would not meet my TP target.
Euro Inflation data out this week, as well as the Aussie CPI. From TD Securities, talking about the Euro HICP: Softer energy inflation likely continued to weigh on headline inflation in the EZ. That said, on a m/m basis, energy inflation likely stayed resilient, in part as subsidized prices won't have declined by as much as wholesale prices. Core will be the...
© BNPP Global FX Positioning Tracker: CAD shorts extend • In G10, FX USD shorts reduce slightly to -17 from -18 last week (+/-50 scale), as our proxy for real money investors reduces shorts. • CAD shorts extend to -23 from -15 last week, as our proxy for electronic trading venues extends shorts and our proxy for real money investors unwinds longs. Technically...
If this is an Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern, 4200 is the target. What we need to see is the price get above the recent POC. Blood is in the streets. The Fed needs to get some new expectations out and deliver some news that comforts the market. Or this is their way of creating financial turmoil that gets job losses that crushes the demand. You choose...
We may have seen a low volume spring on the USDJPY today too. If you had the capital and the tolerance for holding risk over the weekend, this may be the trade for you. However, if this is an accumulation phase, this is the start of a new bull leg higher. So buying pullbacks will be the way to get in on the action next week. Patience is a virtue and initializing...
Equity rally due to systematic buying and HF short covering. Short interest has halved from the Q4 highs for EU equities, but is still elevated in the US. Macro HFs and CTAs have turned outright long equities, and their exposure is close to 12m highs, yet still below average. Long short funds have also reduced short positions, but their net exposure remains low...
- S&P500 has broken higher, which is great for the broader markets - DJIA is up 2.57% already in 2023, if January closes higher, that bodes well for the rest of the year - FTSE100 is racing ahead of everyone and everything that I follow, apart from the DAX(Ger40), mostly due to the weighting of the index towards Oil majors - DAX is up >7% - VIX is trading...
Trend following always starts with a momentum breakout. Yesterdays close is just that.
I have been bullish the SPX, NDQ and DJI for a couple of weeks now and have given plenty of fundamental reasons why we should be. You'll have to google me to find that analysis. AUDJPY is the true risk-on/off trade and we have a buy signal
Credit Agricole say this "The GBP enjoyed new buying interest last week, predominantly driven by Crédit Agricole CIB flows. Our FX flow data points at real money investors' inflows, as well as banks, corporates, and hedge funds outflows. All in all, the GBP is now in overbought territory. The JPY faced new selling interest last week, predominantly driven by Risk...
A trend-following strategy that only takes a few minutes at the end of the day to set up and forget. On the GBPAUD the shorts have been triggered and now we wait to see if we get to TP1 and a trend continuation. Due to the initial stop being very wide, the risk per trade means the nominal lot size is very small.
If we get a good NFP number tomorrow, does that mean the US jobs market is strong? What will the Fed do? Raise rates, increase QT? Fundamentally we should be seeing lower GDP, lower wages, lower demand and with that lower Oil. Technically, we have higher GDP, stable wages, mixed changes in demand and lower oil. This EOD strategy has been set, and now we just...
GBPAUD could be on for a long trade very soon. The yen is appreciating as fears grow and oil reduces. Signifying a possible positioning ahead of a supposed recession.
The EURJPY is now following the USDJPY lower. Due to the 100pip move, we are now at Break Even and will continue with a trailing stop.
The technicals give me the signal but if anyone is interested in rate hikes and fundamentals, may be take a slice of advice from Bank of America. © Oliver Levingston Merrill Lynch (Australia) oliverllewellyn.levingston@bofa.com • The RBA will likely deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike next week. A cooler monthly inflation print has investors betting on a lower...
Looking for the AUDJPY to tumble and fall as market flows into the yen continue. The only problem I have fundamentally with this pair being short potentially is the fact that it usually equates to the Indices being a short too. We just have to trade what we see.
So we have a resurgent US dollar. In this trade, the USDCAD triggered and now, we're waiting for PT 1 Trend following and at the end-of-day adjustments means we can now wait for 24 hours before doing anything.
It's been about 6 months since I got the last bullish signal for BTCUSD. The long-term moving average is still above, so I am not suggesting that BTCUSD is going to $1mil anytime soon, but if we are to see a trend in the future, it has to start somewhere. Today could be that day. Only time will tell. First thing to look for is a move to TP1, then Stops will be...