Davy_Dave_Charts

Davy_Dave_Charts

Imbalance resolved on that 1 Day FVG... Respecting 21 Daily EMA. We have a MACD curl and bullish RSI trend... ready for the next leg up. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD AMEX:BITO

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If rejected here, annotated a confluence of volume that could serve as a pivot for the next leg up.

Davy_Dave_Charts

The imbalances created by last week's impulsive selling need to be resolved, thus pulling price upward. There is a confluence of factors that lead to the probability of a rejection at 420-424. S/R flip at 420, Anchored VWAP where selling could occur and the 200 MA channel. These all reside in very close proximity.

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Lost trend line support and invalidated a bullish order block. The buy the dip folks will bring this up but they'll just create liquidity for more exits. Watching that resistance flipped to support area and confluence with the 200 DMA. Chart is 4H but the MA envelope is on the daily chart frame.

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SPY weekly chart: testing the bottom of channel, however, I don't have too much confidence for a bullish thesis due to the 10 Year Yield being so high, DXY at 106, weak relative strength and the widening gap between the MACD and Signal Line. IMO, we're more likely to break below the channel than continue within it.

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On the weekly, IWM gives credence to bearish bias, however, if we look at the daily chart, there is also a good technical case for a potential run to 200.

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Consider the buy/sell volume, the last two times it pierced the click VWAP (anchored to ATHs) and the difference, in this recent break above.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Broke out of the range to the down side. While not the explosive move we anticipated breaking out of this range, there are some key rejection and break down areas to maintain a bearish scenario.

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Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund DWCPF: strong support found in the 1740-1760 range. Despite that, I am still not entirely convinced that this is out of the woods just yet. Still confronted with a distribution zone above. Could we see a potential inverse head and shoulder on this daily chart? I can see a crude one. For more information on why I am still in a...

Davy_Dave_Charts

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) I-Fund IEFA: Despite a break of structure, 65.90-66 have served as support. Lose that and next likely area of reaction lies between the 50-66 FIB area.

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Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) C-Fund SPX: Technical: very dizzying two weeks as we see price bounce between that 8/25/22 supply zone and support between 4060 and 4100 but the lower highs and lows still have me inclined to remain on the defensive by maintaining my core position in the G-Fund. 4047.95 provide support today in an after lunch rally that had us close at...

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Thrift Savings Plan ( TSP ) I-Fund: broke structure but finding support just below the 21 DEMA, at 66. Has to stay above 21 DEMA and base here or it will likely enter the 50-66 fib area.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Thrift Savings Plan ( TSP ) C-Fund potential bullish and bearish scenarios: yesterday, we lost the 4100 key level and failed to regain it or even tap it, today, however, despite losing the 9 DEMA, price is still trading above the 21. Bullish scenario 1: reclaim of 4100, base there and continuation into supply zone that rejected this recent rally -CPI coming in...

Davy_Dave_Charts Updated 

Effective today, all money I had in the C-Fund was transferred to the G-Fund. Technical reason: SPX over extended and entering a supply zone from August of '22. The bullish exuberance doesn't sense in a fundamentals or macro-economic sense. AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL missed on their earnings and this earnings season, as a whole, has not been good. Unemployment is at...

Davy_Dave_Charts

2 Hour chart: earlier, today, key level of 15.15-15.30 identified, refined it to 15.07-15.23. Loss of this support and no real obstacles to next potential pivot area of 13.50-14.10. Seeing a lot of Resistance/Support flips. If basing occurs at above 15, could serve as double bottom for a bounce back to the Drop Based Drop Supply zone from April/May. If support...

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Rejection in this order block, gap left to be filled, 50% fib retracement brings this into a bullish order block where a likely reversal to the upside would occur. I think we've all talked about the missed earnings and revenue enough.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Strong rejection occurred in the 44.41-45.70 zone, an area that has historically elicited reaction. Likely beaten down to the 40.60's area. If basing doesn't occur there, 38 and 35 are next targets. 30-32.25 order block, if it gets this low.

Davy_Dave_Charts

A week ago I swung some PTON calls and, expecting a bad ER (it really wasn't that great) I predicted a fall to below 12. Obviously that was not the case. Revisiting the chart, I believe we have a case for a bearish scenario based on the following: Rejection in drop based drop supply zone, gap that's yet to be filled and the reality that earnings were missed by...