Despite previous data showing the contrary, many believe that rising fed interest rates will be a catalyst for a down turn.
In the chart above, I compare the federal fund rates (blue) to SPY (orange).
As you can see in the past, a rising interest rate was NOT a catalyst for a crash. Of course this time could be different, but there is no evidence currently...
The Business Cycle has not been the Cumulative Driver of Economic Expansion.
And why the Quantitative Theory of Money is at best incomplete.
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We are in an Extension of the Credit Cycle - an Experiment gone horrifically...
Compare the Feds rate and the market...
Absolutely sustained by feds by devaluation...
It will collapse like never
I am not saying that I am shorting - I am a scalper LOL
(Sorry my chart is ugly) Any good trader knows what a descending triangle looks like and we all know what happens when it is compressed to a fine point- BOOOM. Unfortunately we are at the end of the road when the government will have to keep printing money at a ridiculous rate or they will have to raise interest rates and crumble the economy into bankruptcy. ...
National Currencies in the European Union?
Hmmm... Good Luck in the Short Run, the disarray will
be compelling viewing.
European officialdom is now reeling from THE outbreak of apostasy
within its own ranks.
Adios Angela and a subtle reminder of 2010:
" It is an existential test and it must be overcome ... if the euro fails,
then Europe fails,” she said
11...
If we are starting an new important inflation cycle, increasing rates indicated incoming inflation.
Transition will be accompanied by wall of worries and volatility.
Look to higher time frames for a noise reduced guidance.
Tightening monetary policies are coming. Throughout history, bond yields have been a clear telltale sign of rising interest rates. Throughout the last couple of months you can see bond yields have risen quite sharply.
There is no alarm to be raised just yet on the health of the market, just an early indicator that Feds will start tightening monetary policies. I...
Fed fund rate and M2 money supply are a lethal 1-2 combo punch to knock down your purchasing power.
Thankfully you have gold which is wize to the scheme.
Hold on tight.
M2 nonstop increasing and even faster than ever under Biden and since COVID
Fed funds rate near 0 for entire obama admin-> we are back to 0 again despite Trumpian efforts to raise FFR
this is not a anew trend, if you view Bush Sr as a NWO president (after his 9/11/91 declaration of the new world order speech) rather than a Republican, and compare to Reagan, he is...
I am not a fundamental expert (nor an economist) but I found FEDFUNDS chart really interesting!
I never thought that basic technical analysis tools can also be applied to such economic instruments!
From a technical perspective, FEDFUNDS has been bearish for a while making lower lows and lower highs.
For the momentum to be shifted from bearish to bullish, as...
Disclaimer:
This post will be heavy speculation - but let's have some fun. Let's play this fun game as a mental exercise. In no way is any of this financial advice, nor in any way political, nor does it even reflect my opinion. It is just a mental exercise. I fully admit that economics is not my background, so I will be taking a different approach to forecasting...
