Fed kept rates this low from 2009 to 2016. How long will it be this time?
Fed kept these low rates from 2009 to 2016. How any years will it be this time?
When interest rates hit zero, all the equations blow up toward infinity and beyond... so yeah, markets still can go up and appear "undervalued" when debt is basically free. The crash can happen at any day now - no one knows.
To me its just blaringly obvious that in the coming year(s) theres a recession going to happen, alot of people agree and very many disagree, this however, is bulletproof. Obviously there isnt a recession until its actually happening so act accordingly, dont trade based on inverse yield lol
As mentioned in the previous idea, for Gold to go up we need 2 factors: 1 - market crash from hyperinflated values 2 - fed intervention in the form of rates cut / quantitative easing to make it attractive I would not consider what happened to gold before 2006, when it seems that it is perfectly correlated with spx, simply because in 2000 an ETF on gold was...
Not a good sign for coming recession indication - it's almost a sure bet now with Coronavirus... and once market agrees it's recession for sure, things get UGLY.
I've been looking around for various data tools to indicate recessions catalysts and their relationships to financial indicators over the past few months. From those efforts, I've honed in on a particularly interesting ratio that seems to indicate financial shocks that spark recessions (indicated with green shading). It looks like when you take the Fed's Interest...
Was just taking a look at the rate and noticed the EMA. 200 EMA is currently at 1.71 with the 10 day at 1.86. Black horizontal lines are approximate time when 10 day crossed below 200 day. Purple are the listed start of a recession. Just found this interesting and especially since it's on 15 bp away from crossing to the downside again. You'll also notice that...
One of the massive mistakes I see constantly people making is to take one data point and conclude an outcome. This has been going on for 11 years now all over social media. This chart is no different it does not mean much without further accumulation of other data points in conjunction to reach a likely outcome. So please use this data appropriately. Definitely...
Going to 0 and beyond. One of the few charts that can go in the negative. Lower highs and lower lows for 30 years. Once the market catches wind of lower interest rates it can't get enough. It's a race to the bottom for all developed world interest rates. To full investment and then what happens? The real problem is the velocity of money keeps dropping with every...
Take notice how correlated the lending rate is to the rate of fiat dollars printed. All that money was printed at 0% interest. Now, rates are going up and the printing presses are cooling down.
The 2 year yield is dropping fast and the FED is forced to follow. We have a 100% probability of a September rate cut. $TLT $IEF $SPY $GLD $SLV $GDX $QQQ $IAU
Federal Reserve Rates Cut to 2% (0.25% cut) coming back into the system. $75 billion on the repo announced. Lambos.
Just for fun and something to watch. Recessions in Grey
The last couple of times there were financial problems with the Fed and they started messing with rates. As you can see each time there is a down turn in recent history we've had historical corrections to the down side or extreme bear markets. It looks like we're rolling over yet one more time. What will they do tomorrow? Lower the rates? Start up QE...
Simple chart showing the federal funds rates since 1955. As you can see the rate is currently in a falling wedge pattern which should eventually break to the upside. However given the conditions of the global economy, for now, we may very well be at the peak at the top of the channel with a downward move pending. If this happens to be the peak and feds continue...