Putting on the same chart the S&P and fed rate the last three market bottoms happened a year and a half after the fed funds rate peaks. (589 days avg.) That would put the next one in September 2024
FED Funds Rate In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Rate is projected to trend around 9-10%
Comparing rates and Unemployment to predict timing of recessions.
just going over the 2yr VS the fed rate and what to expect this year. I think I need to write down my speech first I tell you what talking to yourself is not that easy. Have a great weekend
Total Public Debt multiplied by increasing Fed Fund Rates equals trouble! #Recession along side rocketing initial #jobless claims right around the corner. #Gold and #Silver also have a high probability of rocketing.
Fed saying the peak rate 5% next year. imo this news -had- to accompany a 50bp hike or apes would have prematurely partied. I think the 4000% climb up to now was worse. They want to raise as much across 2023 as they rose in November 2022 alone. Of course there are layers of complexity here, but looking at the topical move here, I don't think its thats bad and...
Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. I am not a fundamental expert (nor an economist) but I found FEDFUNDS chart really interesting! I never thought that basic technical analysis tools can also be applied to such economic instruments! As per my last analysis (attached on the chart) FEDFUNDS traded higher and...
When we see the Fed funds rate "Green" Surpass both the 2 year and 10 year yield we can expect to see a pause or cutting - when we see the the Fed funds rate being lowered is when the next market downturn happens
its obvious the momentum will cary this higher,, will have a dramatic impact on the dynamic of the demand economy
Mortgages tend to be right at the prime rate over time, falling a bit below or above (recent decades) depending on sentiment, but large diversions would be relatively unprecedented.
Another simple, without noise chart: Effective Federal Funds Rate (blue) and the S&P 500 (dark yellow). Since March, with a macro perspective, almost all my 'crash' ideas are showing that the probability of a major crash is in place; the truth be told, with a boring pattern that keeps repeating itself. I don't know if this time will be different, what I know is...
This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral. To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th Or maybe they'll allow a brief...
A pure trend analysis of US interest rates and inflation. In my opinion, the cheap money and low inflation era has ended in the long term.
The Federal reserve stepped in to control inflation by increasing interest rates. It looks like the decades long trend channel has been broken upwards. Fed reserve is definitely going above parameters, I bet even they didnt expect to go above. Im guessing deflation is coming followed by stagnation, I hope i'm wrong.
Rates of 2020 are breaking to reach rates of 2007 More correction forward
CPI the Core inflation, which is the focus of most traders, rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July. Although the US inflation decreased in August; But it was still higher than economists had expected, signaling that the US Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in raising interest rates. Also Eight days before the new Federal Reserve...
On the chart, is the Federal Funds rate about to intersect the yield of the 2 year Treasury Bills ? If so , will this mark the technical point at which the Federal Board will loosen things up in the context of the big picture including jobs, core inflation, et cetera. Will the fed lighten up and make any hike only 25 / 50 points ? Has the market already...
Consumer Price Index Year over Year (CPI YOY) vs 2 Year Yield (2YY) vs Fed Funds. To even begin to arrest inflation, the Fed has to get Fed Funds above the 2YY. To break the back of inflation, the Fed must get Fed Funds above CPI YOY. Does the most recent drop in CPI YOY mean that peak inflation is already in? People forget that when inflation runs hot, so...