Every Time we were around this area, FED went to 5,59 %.
interest rate shock times ! obvious but happy. Not correctly priced in the forward curves! it will go higher than 3,8% for sure!
We're about to make history y'all! But not for a good reason... We're breaking out of the interest rate bear trend we've been in for over 35 years.
We used to raise interest rates to help control the debt; but after we abandoned the gold standard it didn't work so well. Going forward the economy could handle less and less rate hikes, while debt sky-rocketed....
Look from 2015-2019 fed was raising rates, yet NASDAQ remained bullish the entire time. Don't buy the hype - people have no fking clue what they're talking about.
The blue line area shows the historic and current FED's Fund Rate.
Looking back in the past it appears the US10Y (yellow line) is predictive of FED's fund rate upper target (orange arrows).
The US3M (turquoise line) seems to be a good indicator to get a feeling for the FED's fund rate short-term up or downward trend.
In the FOMC Summary of Economic Projections...
What do the markets care about this week? We have another CPI print on Wednesday, which is highly anticipated. We are in a period of nasty stagflation and the Fed is caught in a difficult position. They want to raise rates further, but the issue is that our cause of inflation seems to be on the supply chain side. Interest rates will do little to combat this. ...
Never seen before, 1336% year over year change in the Fed Fund Rate. I'm now seriously worried about what they broke this time... #fomc #inflation #gold #stagflation
The chart above shows the Rate of Change (over a rolling 5-period) in the Fed Funds Rate.
The parabolic Rate of Change is unprecedented, yet the Federal Reserve is just getting underway with quantitative tightening as it pledges to do whatever it takes to squash high inflation. It's hard to imagine the Fed can pull off a soft landing.
Ironically, this looks...
It appears that the Dollar has officially sucked up the stock and crypto markets, paid off some past loans loans, inflated the economy with new loans, and now will Weak Dollar it's way down to pump the economy.
This is a quite interesting chart showing a ratio (black trend-line) of the Interest Rate, 5Y Yield and Federal Debt trading within a Megaphone pattern since the 1990s. Its (Higher) Highs have naturally coincided with peaks in Rate Hikes (red trend-line). The last peak was on October 2018 and currently the ratio just broke within that range again (red...
the fed pivot indicator
We are at the point where the fed would usually halt rate hikes and begin easing again
As they gear up for 75bp in a couple weeks, they would be knowingly blowing up the system
This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years...
It will be interesting to see if the Fed can buck this trend or if they will back off the rate hikes before a breakout occurs.
Don't mind the chart on the right, I did not intend to publish it, but it's not hurting anything so I left it there.
Tracking this one. One reason I am pretty confident the swing is coming. I do not see a deflationary crash. I see the hyperinflation first. The crack up boom once the govts "pivot and start the brrrr full blast. Full "economic impact payments" aka UBI universal basic income. It is coming i am very confident as its already being experimented with in fully radical...
The correlation between the Federal Fund rate and the DXY. In fancy mathematical terms, let's assume to start with the function F(x)= USD, thereby we can assume that the DXY it's the first derivative of f(x)=USD, considering that the DXY has been built as the average index of all the other currencies exchange rate in proportion to the USD. So the first...
You can't fix silly.
You can't fix stupid.
The Bond Market isn't going to fix anything, it assures ruin.
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Buy the Dip hasn't quite worked out.
TLT will head to Sub 52.
You were warned long ago exactly what is happening would.
And explained in no uncertain terms exactly why.
DX back to 125?
Yeah... it's...
