COPPER : REBOUND- The market registers higher peaks and bottoms, trading within a bullish channel since the end of October 2023, the medium-term trend is therefore bullish.
- Very recently, prices recorded a 4th impact on their bullish trendline, following a sell-off since the failure below the $397.40 area.
A strong positive reaction is currently recorded in the shape of a piercing price pattern, following a bullish divergence registered by the Stochastic indicator.
- This is a bullish rebound situation. Indeed, bullish investors appear to be numerous and powerful enough to prevent the market from breaking its downward trend line. The next targets can be located at $387, $391.10 then $397.40 and finally above $400 by extension
HGK2020 trade ideas
buy march copper 379.20 limit, if filled, stop 371.60buy march copper 379.20 limit, if filled, stop 371.60
COPPER: Long term sell signalCopper is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.350, MACD = 0.033, ADX = 19.471) as it is at the top of the 2023 Channel Down, but having failed to cross over it, opens the way for a big decline in the first quarter of 2024. As you can see the Channel Down that started last January looks very similar to the one in 2012/13. Both emerged after a Global peak and then rejection to an oversold 1W RSI bottom.
It is very interesting how similar the ranges are, both Channel Down bearish legs have been around -18.50%. We are turning bearish on the most optimal technical level and aim for another -18.50% decline (TP = 3.2500) or up when the 1W RSI gets oversold (under 30.000).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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COPPER Correction to accelerate lower.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!) 1.5 months ago (October 24), we caught the most optimal bottom buy signal:
The price action didn't only hit our Target but also broke above both the January 18 2023 Lower Highs trend-line and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The rejection that took place on Monday though, is giving rise to a new Falling Wedge pattern with the current Bearish Leg on full display. The bearish signal is already confirmed as the 1D MACD has completed a Bearish Cross, and so far the sequence is very similar to the August 01 rejection.
As a result, we are bearish on Copper, looking to take advantage of today's green 1D candle and short near the closing in anticipation of being close to the peak. Our short term Target is 3.6100, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, a symmetrical level where the price bounced on August 17. Selling can only be extended if the green Support Zone breaks.
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Copper on the Verge of a Break-Out!Copper futures have experienced a noteworthy trajectory, influenced by various market factors. The bottoming of 30-year bonds in late October, resulting in lower yields, has coincided with a rally in copper prices. Interest rates play a pivotal role, acting as a major headwind to construction spending and financed projects, thereby augmenting demand for copper.
A significant driver for the copper market has been China's industrial production figures for October, surpassing expectations with a 4.6% increase compared to the anticipated 4.4%. This positive data has added conviction to the strength of the copper market. Traders are eagerly anticipating the release of the next Chinese Industrial Production numbers on December 14th for further insights.
Headwinds for Copper:
The upcoming week presents challenges for risk assets, and the interest rate environment, as various job-related data such as ADP Nonfarm, Avg Hourly Earnings, Unit Labor Costs, and the Unemployment rate are scheduled for release. The evolving credit cycle poses potential benefits for commodities, with copper serving as an indicator for the economic landscape.
Support & Resistance Levels to Watch:
To witness sustained strength in copper, market participants are keenly watching for a break and close above the critical level of 3.92-3.96. Should we gain traction above this level, the psychologically significant 4.00 level looms as the next significant hurdle. The intricacies of copper futures reflect the intricate dance between economic indicators, global production figures, and the evolving credit cycle, and will continue to be a closely watched commodity in the new year.
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copper Futures to target 5.05 after crossing 3.85COMEX
On the weekly chart, a technical pattern has formed and the crossing confirmation above 3.85 will push the price up to 5.05 passing through several levels of resistance - shown on the chart.
Trading above 5.05 for more than a month, the long term target will be 5.6
Stop loss should be considered - 3.75
#Copper Levels: BUY OR SELL?#Copper Market Levels:
Resistance: 712
Support: 708
Trading Strategy:
A trade plan is suggested only if either the resistance at 712 or the support at 708 is breached.
Copper 2017-2020 FractalThree years span 2017-2020 fractal matching 2021-2023 along negative trifecta:
1- High grade production glut now forecasted to exceed usage by 467,000 metric tons in 2024
2- US Ratings downgrade poised to worsen Treasuries ig, global juncture, EZ in recession, China's slowdown
3- Extended geopolitical tensions potentially broadening to Taiwan as signaled by the preventive Korean equities short selling ban
🧽 Mister Poper. Meet The Cleaner Of Your DreamsCopper price continued to provide negative trades affected by the frequent stability below the additional barrier at 3.7280, to manage to reach some negative stations by touching 3.6100.
Also, RSI stochastic continues to provide the negative momentum to allow us to suggest forming new negative waves to attack the additional support near 3.5000 followed by monitoring its behavior to manage to confirm the upcoming trend.
The expected trend: Bearish
Copper Futures ~ November TA Outlook (Daily Chart)COMEX:HG1! chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes
Copper Futures attempting to build bullish momentum off evolving China economic stimulus narrative.
Copper vs palladiumDon't know how I got down this rabbit hole, BUT when #copper really bottoms vs #palladium, this chart is telling me that the #dxy is toast.
Has the #USD truly topped?
Copper - Once again a snapshot of the '05 era compared to now
1989 - 2004 experienced years of sideways action then to a final blow off breaking out of pattern onto the next level. This blow off then resulted into a financial crash.
From 2006 (the first top of the '08 crash) to 2023, the market has also been sideways exactly like the past but of course in its own unique way.
Based on analyzing coppers trade pattern it seems that we're located in the times of 2005, three years before the '08 crash.
lets say the market is due to crash in ~2025 this exactly lines up with the clues in the past to say the market will crash in 2026.
With this data you can match your research to add confluence in your investment strategy, trade ideas, and much more.
*Not Financial Advice - DYDD*
COPPER Channel Down bottom buy opportunityCopper (HG1!) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the June 29 low and since 5 days, it entered the 11 month Support Zone. The 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, which has been a buy signal the previous 2 times within the Channel Down.
Every bearish sequence in 2023 has seen a rebound that hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This is good enough for us to buy and target 3.7600 (0.618 Fib).
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Copper: Jump off! 👟The copper price has reached the lower edge of the pink trend channel within the turquoise target zone between $3.59 and $3.51 and has already shown a reaction to this line. Now, a far-reaching rise should occur, beyond the resistance at $4.19. There, the magenta wave (B) should then be finished and it should transition into sustained descents to the green target zone between $3.08 and $2.59.
Mcx copper futuresBouncing from 4 month support area 690 levels if manages to close above 690 for next 5-6 session can see strong pull back rally towards 720-740 levels. View fails on losing below 690.
HGZ3 LongSorry been out the whole month looking for my kids. Anyway this one will bring my family back. HG(copper) qualitative analysis.
Reasoning. Northern henpishphere most industrialized hemisphere looking to re stockpile copper for construction for the winter. As the building season winds down stockpiles are depleted. With all the new gov funding ARPA/BIL act more construction is on the horizon and with inflation commodities usually pop. I’m on mobile again, sorrrrrry living the life is hard.
“WAGMI, just not the way you think you will.” -KewlKat
HG is completing the Gartley Pattern- if price breaks down thru 3.59, the way down to 3.40 will be opened
- at this level Gartley D-point sits aligned with Fib Ext 0.5
- a bit lower, at 3.30 there is support created by top from June 2018
- if the overall situation in China improves and demand for copper may grow, this cluster could be a good entry point for LONG. Till then SHORT
Double bottom chart pattern double bottom pattern is a classic technical analysis charting formation that represents a major change in trend and a momentum reversal from a prior down move in market trading. It describes the drop of a security or index, a rebound, another drop to the same or similar level as the original drop, and finally another rebound (that may become a new uptrend). The double bottom looks like the letter "W." The twice-touched low is now considered a significant support level. While those two lows hold, the upside has new potential.
[Commodity] Copper Buy IdeaNote -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives.
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Copper ready for fresh upside move again On Our Harmonic pattern indicator based trade setup take trade as explained below :-
Early trades Buy or sell below/ above 23.6 %, safe trades buy or sell above / below 41% , after taking trade next upside or downside levels will be target ,
When reverse buy or sell signal appear then book profit on Target or trail SL to 23.6 % If trailing SL hit then early trade can be taken above or below 23.6 and safe trade can b taken above/ below 41% ..
Please note:-
It's working on news based and volitile market very well so exit if SL hit
More Upside move pending on Copper On Our Harmonic pattern indicator based trade setup take trade as explained below :-
Early trades Buy or sell below/ above 23.6 %, safe trades buy or sell above / below 41% , after taking trade next upside or downside levels will be target ,
When reverse buy or sell signal appear then book profit on Target or trail SL to 23.6 % If trailing SL hit then early trade can be taken above or below 23.6 and safe trade can b taken above/ below 41% ..
Please note:-
It's working on news based and volitile market very well so exit if SL hit
XCUUSD ( COPPER / USD ) Commodities Analysis 29/08/2022Fundamental Analysis:
as of now we can see the global inflation has rise sky rocket and the worlds economy is in a huge bobble which soon will explode and a catastrophic crisis may occur, ultimately most of the manufacturing and development plants which are dependent on the base commodities such as Copper and gold may face some market crises and demand may plummet to a very critically low levels, consequently a lots of the retail and small entities producer and manufacturers will hit the bottom line and bankruptcies if their exposure is not hedged or planned their business strategies accordingly for these days.
one of the main reason for this incident can be the changing of the world order and power pole transformation from west to the middle east and far east, Russia's conflicts with Europe and china's with south china's sea and Taiwan.
food shortage and probably real state collapse could be predicted and can be a good cause of such a market fall.
energy crisis and fuel price jump can be another good reason to decrease the equity and profit margin in the manufacturing and production segments.
Technical Analysis:
There exist a bearish Divergence of Price and MACD followed with some market fall from its ATH which means bullish trend Reversal and we are facing more falls and a bearish Market, using Fibonacci Retracement levels we have defined some Target Levels which are having confluences with different cycle Fib Levels.
we have defined some Resistance levels using Fibonacci and Price Action.
we may have some Bullish price correction on the way of the bearish trend.
There are total of 4 targets defined using the confluences of Different Fibonacci and Price action levels and they can be considered as strong support levels if not Broken sharply
