urea price analysis is mosre fundamental than technical.
i think its about 3 year floor price and will rise because of (KHARIF) session.
there is no action in market for now. lets see what will happen in late may and first half of june
urea has dropped almost to the point from where the price lifted 3 years ago.
it may drop further 17 to 28 % .
the pressure for a short may have a fundamental basis that i am unaware of for this strategic commodity, but the companies like Shapdis & Khorasan are producing under their practical capacity, and are further struggling with the financial constraints...
.. on Fertilizer: Russia is the world’s largest exporter of fertilizers. I wonder if folks are too complacent about the inherent risks here? As Adam Samuelson in GIR put it to me, “the spike in fertilizer is a major issue underpinning the bullish view on agricultural commodities and why some of the inflationary pressures in the food system won’t abate anytime...
My more frequent readers already know, that aside from the esoteric (gamma), I have a faible for way more existential matters like energy, food, or..urea.
And before the title of this post gets misinterpreted. No, I do not believe in overpopulation, quite the opposite. I am on absolutely the same page as Elon Musk and I believe people/markets will eventually wake...
My deep fundamental analysis of PISS leads me to believe piss will continue to go up and reject resistance with strength.
Somewhere, someone, FOMO'd on piss. And people are going to FOMO on PISS again, but when profit is taking/hedges are reduced in size (or new opened higher) the price of PISSSSS will retrace violently.
Hey anyone want to join me and pump PISS?...
