Since mid-summer 2014 the 10-Year Treasury Yield started correlating with WTI Crude Oil, which can be seen on the image below: The correlation was established as a result of dynamics of oil prices, when falling oil was perceived as a risk to inflation. Expectations of lower inflation have driven the 10-Year Yield down with the WTI Oil. Market has perceived...
Two weeks ago, I presented a bullish case for the German Bund (www.cfdtrading.com). Prices have since bounced on a long-term trend line at 148.50 are are currently testing a resistance at the 152 level. If this resistance (daily Kijun) breaks, this could be a new bullish signal. Depending on how the euro and European equities trade, my targets will be at 153 and...
The sharp rise in sovereign yields in Europe has taken a lot of people by surprise, and the sentiment in the market is more and more bearish as people are starting to believe Bill Gross's "short of a century" statement made two months ago. We should all be asking ourselves if it's reasonable to expect yields to keep rising over the long term as the ECB will...
The multi-decade long trend is firmly entrenched. Until the upper bound of the trend-line is pierced, I remain bullish on 30 YR Yields.
2007-2012: Convergence between S&P500 trend and yield on Treasury 30y USA: - Downhill stocks leads to a reduction in yields on the bond market . The flow of money coming out of the US stocks and goes to US bonds for the "safe haven" - RISK OFF. - Rise in share prices on stocks leading the market yield bonds to rise due to the vendite.Flow of money out of the US...
Macro: The Short term spike in yields triggered a large selloff in REITS. As mentioned in the 10 Year yield post, The yields are likely to rebound until at least end of year which could put downward pressure on REITS. Technicals: USDH is underperforming the S&P which is setting up for a possible short across the board over the next weeks. The bearish divergence...