The sharp rise in sovereign yields in Europe has taken a lot of people by surprise, and the sentiment in the market is more and more bearish as people are starting to believe Bill Gross's "short of a century" statement made two months ago. We should all be asking ourselves if it's reasonable to expect yields to keep rising over the long term as the ECB will clearly continue buying up excess supply for the next 15 months. If you think this is the case, then you must believe that the euro will head back above $1.20 during the second half of the year (this isn't necessarily out of the question given the risk with Fed rate forecasts). Whatever you may think on a fundamental basis, you should be watching the Bund's long-term bullish trend line closely in the days ahead. This support comes in at around 148.50, which is the 50% retracement level from the 2013 lows to this year's highs. Any daily candlestick indicating a bullish reversal after having tested this support would make me want to attempt a long strategy. I'd like to see the EUR/USD hit $1.145-1.15 with the Bund at support to have the best timing possible on such a strategy.
