Double Divergence seen on RSI along with price confirmation of SO's most recent bottom. A "W" pattern is also setting up with a break above $45 further solidifying the opportunity for a low risk positional trade when taking the stated yield % into account. Pin bar seen on Heavy volume, and the most recent double bottom also coming on good volume.
Still cannot know whether the underlying asset will be turning from the 1.382 / .50 or the 1.618 / .618 but there is a strong confluence on both levels which makes me believe that one of them which prove to be a a key reversal point. Also judging by the strong correlation between 10-Y yields and the DXY which is also nearing a major reversal point we could in...
TYX aka 30 year treasury yields seem to be on the verge of ending it's 30 year downtrend. Short term ripe for a move down considering overhead resistance, but long term seems more likely to move up or sideways rather than lower considering it is near it's apex and shorter term rates are already strong.
Short 10 Year Italian BTP Futures as a hedge and catch up play with U.S. treasury and German Bund Yields.
Relief rally after a lot of selling
US Generic 10 yr yields took a leap towards the reverse h&s neckline, 2.60% is the key level the watch. if yields breach above 2.60 music stops for the long EM trades for the short term! hedge longs especially fragile 5s ccy and bonds
As investors price in lower inflation and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike, the yield curve (between the 30 year bond and the two year note) is continuously making new lows. Typically, the flattening or steepening of the yield curve is led by one end, but in this case, both appear to be contributing equally. This presents a problem for the Fed as...
China 10y yields lead US yields When spread is outside of BB, US yields should move in the coming weeks. Also, China 10Y yields track Copper prices Source: www.mcoscillator.com
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of 10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
Today let's look at the China 10 year bonds future market. As the most important market of controlling the inflation , those "jigou" ( securities company hedging manager in Chinese) are buying this market into Renminbi interests lower which is canceling the 13th. March hike. This has caused 3 months inflation lower in China till the June. ( maybe they're saving...
We have a strong uptrend signal in treasury notes and potential for a big upside move. I'm currently long $TMF, as my proxy for this move, since $TLT was lower than 10 Year Note futures, offering a more interesting risk/reward (as per Tim West's posts). Right now, I think the move to the upside is confirmed, so, if you're not in, you could look into buying either...
Over supply from the auctions should keep treasury yields rising to test the high @ 2.65 on the 10yr. Bills and 7yr being auctioned tomorrow should continue to fuel the Dow higher. $DXY might follow yields to 102 forming a right shoulder depending on the data tomorrow and Friday.
This chart provides probable market behavior given current market behavior, interest rates, and other factors such as presidential elections. www.tradingview.com I am expecting a down turn during the next week which would last until late February and another leg up in SPX until the final move down in August 2017. Trend line colors mark the same conditions...
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :) Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards Aaron
The global benchmark for the rates – the US 10-year Treasury yield has rallied this month from 1.77% to a high of 2.417%. Such a sharp rise in yields in such a short period of time is undesirable since the world is awash with debt…as noted by Nicole Elliot on yesterday’s Finance show Marc Ostwald, Strategist at ADMISI also noted the sharp spike is overdone on...
Gilt’s daily close above 127.23 (23.6% Fibo retracement) on Monday if followed by a move back above resistance at 127.63 could yield a rally to weekly 5-MA level of 128.03 – 128.22 (38.2% Fibo). On the lower side, failure to hold above 127.23 followed by a break below 126.42 (Oct 20 low) would open doors for a re-test of 125.63 (Oct 17 low).
Rebound from the low of 125.627 on the back of a bullish price RSI divergence and a bullish MACD crossover has run into resistance at 127.23, which is 23.6% Fibo resistance of the sell-off from 132.424-125.627. Given the bullish divergence on the 4-hr and bullish pin bar on the daily chart the odds of a break above 127.23 and a rise to 128.00 are high. Only a...