The Background & Info: At the end of Q1 we have seen the usual crazy headline packed news cycle that we all have become accustomed to since 2020. Strange news, wars, meme realities and conspiracy vindication are now the new normal. You might have missed it in the news cycle, due to all the chaos, but the Chinese Yuan ( CNY ) has made some HUGE waves throughout...
2023, week 10 - Trend Status Analysis by PresentTrading USD index is fluctuating around 6.9. The risk market is uncertain. Keep moving. Keep watching. Gluck. Please do risk control. -- Summary -- Total Closed Trades 34 Winning rate 76.47% 'Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions.' by PresentTrading #forex #USD #CNY #trading...
FX_IDC:USDCNY Up only? it seems DXY is going to dominate Forex again in short term. Keep moving. Keep watching. -- Summary -- Total Closed Trades 34 Winning rate 76.47% Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions. Gluck. Please do risk control. PresentTrading #forex #USD #CNY #trading #backtesting
FX_IDC:USDCNY Keep moving. Keep watching. -- Summary -- Total Closed Trades 34 Winning rate 76.47% Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions. Gluck. Please do risk control. #forex #USD #CNY #trading #backtesting
I am investigating the extent to which USD/CNY is an indicator of future USD moves across the Majors. First, notice on the chart how well Price-Action and Elliot Wave concepts apply to USD/CNY. The levels of polarity chance sit right on the Fionacci retracements. The Breakout Aug 2022, in (A), follows the description of a breakout (Pre-Breakout PA) to...
FX_IDC:USDCNY Keep moving. As what the post told last week, the downside trend has stopped, USD is showing strength against CNY. -- Summary -- Total Closed Trades 34 Winning rate 76.47% Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions. Gluck. Please do risk control. #forex #USD #CNY #trading #backtesting
Spot the 4 patterns. With Dollar Index (DXY) plotted below for comparison. It's a shame the USD/CNY can't serve as a leading indicator for USD-pairs, but its analysis shows you WHEN to enter the USD-market, long or short, and catch the big waves. The most notable are the periods of sideways trading. Looking at USD/CNY, those are really calm and composed, while...
FX_IDC:USDCNY USD is showing strength against CNY, and the downside trend has stopped. -- Summary -- Total Closed Trades 34 Winning rate 76.47% Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions. Gluck. Please do risk control. #forex #USD #CNY #trading #backtesting
Yield differentials between the US and China 2-year treasury note continue to suggest USD/CNH could be oversold, at least over the near-term. The daily close chart (above in black) also better shows the potential for a higher low, as part of a countertrend move. The daily candlestick chart shows a recent pullback has failed to retest the 6.6976 low, and yesterday...
The forecast that will probably come true not in 10 years, but this year, the yuan will begin to become the world's currency. Currently it only accounts for a few percent of world trade, but it will account for tens of percent. In this scenario China must stop devaluing the currency to please its exporters and overseas partners. Create an infrastructure parallel...
HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT USDCNH is nice to see strong volume area.... Where is lot of contract accumulated.. I thing that the sellers from this area will be defend this SHORT position.. and when the price come back to this area, strong sellers will be push down the market again.. DOWNTREND + SUPPORT from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason...
A few months ago, I proposed USDCNH/USDCNY consolidating for a bit and then going higher, as such strong moves usually follow through. The Chinese economy looks extremely weak for multiple reasons, and I see no way that the CNH/CNY won't lose much of its value relative to the dollar. Technically it is ready for another strong move higher, and the fact that Pelosi...
As the Chinese economy was slowing even before the lockdowns, the strict lockdowns put a lot more pressure on the CNH/CNY. This created a huge divergence in the policies of the Fed and PBoC, as one was hiking and the other was cutting. For quite some time the USD was going up against most currencies, except the CNY... until one day the market fully reversed and...
A month ago we called the top on the USDCNY: With the price breaking below Fibonacci 4.0, the pair has basically called for an extension of November's downtrend. This will be confirmed if the price fails to close the week above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see, on a sample dating back to January 2017, every time the price failed to close above the...
A little while ago the PBOC lost control of their currency and we saw the US dollar rising exponentially. In the latest trade report from China Exports from China edged 0.3% lower yoy to USD 298.37 billion in October 2022, missing the market consensus of a 4.3% growth. This was the first decline in shipments since May 2020, amid poor overseas demand as cost...
DXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% DXY, 60% Cash. * The US October Employment Situation today reported 261k nonfarm payroll jobs added (vs 250k expected), a 0.2% increase in unemployment and a 62.2% labor force participation rate. These numbers hardly reflect monetary tightening (labor force participation rate has...
The USDCNY pair has been on a very strong rise since it got detached from the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on August 11. The bullish channel resembles that of mid April - mid May, which topped on its 6.0 Fibonacci extension from its previous Support. The RSI is printing a similar sequence that was just before that top. As a result it is a possibility that the pair...
I think we are about to see a lot of pain in China. In my opinion China is getting ready to have its Japan moment. No other comments.