230228 - USD/CNY as leading indicator - or not?

I am investigating the extent to which USD/CNY is an indicator of future USD moves across the Majors.

First, notice on the chart how well Price-Action and Elliot Wave concepts apply to USD/CNY.

• The levels of polarity chance sit right on the Fionacci retracements.
  
• The Breakout Aug 2022, in (A), follows the description of a breakout (Pre-Breakout PA) to perfection.
  
• The Breakdown Dec 2022 / resumption of trend, in (D) is beautiful in its simplicity.
  
• The top reversal from Oct/Dec last year in (B) is a textbook example of a Head & Shoulders pattern.
  
• The top itself (C) does also read as THE top: Long Candle up, Dark cloud Cover, Inside bar, Pin bar and a counter strike bar. Text book Dark Cloud Cover Reversal, in fact you’ll find a chart example in Steve Nison, 'Beyond Candlesticks’, p.80, that looks very similar to this one. (I checked, I did look familiar when I saw it)
  
• Double bounce Jan 2023, in (D) respecting S/R levels from 6 months earlier.
  

LAST FRIDAY
You remember USD gained across all pairs. Bullish USD means Bearish Stocks. Friday should have been a good day for you guys. It was easy, no?
All I needed for Friday was USD/CNY, it’s what I based my decisions on.

THE BREAKOUT LAST FRIDAY WAS PRECEDED BY A BRKEAK OUT ON USD/CNY.

MEANING THAT (AT LEAST ON THAT OCCASSION) USD/CNY IS A LEADING INDICATOR, maybe just because it's the earliest market to trade on any given day.

DOLLAR INDEX (#DXY) vs USD/CNY AS INDICATOR.
I have added DXY (in orange) as an overlay. I few things I notice:

Most important takeaway;
USD/CNY tells you the start of the big move up or down within a day or 2max. USD/CNY is not useful in providing info in ranging DXY markets.

• May-Aug 2022. DXY is frisky. Jumps down, up, up and down, arriving where it started, 3 months earlier. During this time USD/CNY remains stable. But the breakout is dead-easy to read from the USD/CNY, while DXY at that time was confusing and useless as indicator.
  
• I have already explained the top-reversal on USD/CNY above. That is clear. On DXY however, the top is very frisky again, wild swings with a range, half the range of the entire wave down.
  
• 1 Feb 2023. Is the bottom of the down-move on DXY. 2 Feb 2023 on USD/CNY. But USD/CNY gives you confirmation with a double bottom, which can be read as being the bottom.
  
  Conclusion
  For now, I suggest you add USD/CNY to your watchlists, and look for USD-pairs that respond well. (JPY and CHF are two) For those USD/CNY will be a useful indicator for timing your USD-trades.
  
  
  One last thing - the spread between the USD/CNY and DXY
  
  
  
  
  When the spread becomes too large, USD drops, but DXY drops more. We know CNY is overvalued. Chinese Central Bank manipulates it, since 2015, when USD and CNY de-pegged. But I need to investigate the spreads further.